The total crypto market cap is in a unique consolidation phase with high uncertainty and weak sentiment, and Ethereum is serving as a key guide for identifying potential bullish momentum and confirmation in the broader crypto market. A bullish divergence has been observed on the momentum oscillator, though repeated lower lows and MACD signals above the signal line have been faked out, suggesting potential continued sideways movement. Ethereum broke above the yellow trend line, aligning with a prior breakout in 2023, which may signal a potential shift to the upside. The market is approaching a confluent resistance area where the 200-day moving average and the upper trend line intersect around $2,000, and Ethereum is testing the 200-day moving average and key support levels, with a potential breakout or breakdown depending on whether it can sustain a move above the 200-day MA and the pink trend line. Altcoins are in a prolonged consolidation phase relative to BTC dominance, and the breakout could be signaled by Ethereum's price action, particularly around the $1,900 to $2,000 level, which is seen as a key area for confirming bullish momentum.
Bitcoin is trading sideways at the 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as a bottoming out signal across cycles. The market is currently in a post-quantitative tightening phase, squeezing within a lower trend line and a massive macro trend line, similar to a prior bottom in 2019, waiting for a breakout. Michael Sailor's strategy is implementing its long-term business mechanism, selling Bitcoin while ETF inflows have been eight times higher than the amount sold, indicating broader market strength despite short-term negative headlines. Sailor's Bitcoin sales are not a major market concern because he still owns a significant portion of supply, and major holders like BitMine and Ethereum are buying at low cost basis, indicating long-term confidence. Bitcoin is in an oversold, low-risk territory with support at the 20 and 50-day moving averages, and the price is currently ranging between $63,200 and $64,200, with potential for a breakout to the upside or a test of lower lows around $60,000. Even if price goes lower, it presents a meaningful accumulation opportunity for macro investors. The market is also forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66,000, and the current consolidation near the 20 and 50-day moving averages suggests a pending right shoulder setup.
Bitcoin is approaching a potential inverse head and shoulders breakout, with the 200-day moving average at $70,000 acting as a key macro reversal area after a year-long downtrend. The creator notes that when long-term holders are underwater, it's the best time to buy, and Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone. The LTH MVRV ratio falling below one could be a strong signal to buy, especially if Bitcoin experiences a capitulation, indicating accumulation territory. Altcoins, including SUI and Cardano, are considered undervalued and potentially in a heavier buy zone, especially as we may be nearing the end of the post-QT dip, with a possible upside burst ahead. The creator observes that we are in an accumulation zone for altcoins and crypto overall, with macro cycles and onchain metrics indicating a potential shift into expansion.
When devastating news doesn't affect price, the bottom is close, and the current wave of negative headlines coinciding with technical indicators like bullish divergence and low risk models suggest a crypto structured bottom is forming. Crypto is at a bullish macroeconomic inflection point as quantitative tightening ends and expansion begins, with institutional adoption like Sailor's Bitcoin reserve strategy signaling strong conviction. The Sailor model is being proven in real time, with corporate treasury accumulation during downturns, demonstrating a bullish case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence on the weekly chart with record-breaking oversold conditions on MACD, forming a potential bottom at the 200-week moving average, coinciding with institutional adoption and the corporate treasury model being proven. We're in a sideways consolidation phase, but the underlying macro conditions—specifically the PMI expansion—are signaling a potential upcoming crypto expansion, similar to previous cycles, with structural formations and bottoming out areas forming over time. Crypto is part of the broader macroeconomic environment and is influenced by the business cycle and economic growth, with the potential for both failure and expansion.
Ethereum bulls are pressing just below a long-standing resistance area since 2023, and Cardano is in a setup not seen since 2020 after five years of consolidation, signaling a potential major altcoin bull run. The ETHBTC pair is testing the 20-month moving average and breaking a key trend line, with structural similarities to the post-quantitative tightening bottom in 2020, suggesting a potential reversal at this macro-technical intersection. Ethereum's price action is mirroring past structural patterns and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and liquidity, similar to other asset classes. Ethereum is currently between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with confluence of a long-term trend line from 2022 providing macro and short-term support, and the market is in a consolidation phase where a breakout above the 200-day MA could signal a bullish cycle reversal. SUI is positioned well for a crypto bull run with strong institutional interest and favorable technicals on the monthly and weekly charts, particularly with the MACD and RSI showing potential for a reversal. When SUI breaks and holds above the 20-week moving average, that's where special things happen for SUI. If ADA breaks above the 200-day moving average at 24 cents, it could signal a macro reversal similar to Ethereum, indicating a potential major upward move. Cardano is showing a macroeconomic setup similar to ETHBTC, with a potential breakout above the 20-week moving average and testing of the 50-week moving average at 38 to 40 cents, which could signal a shift in the cycle. The macro environment, particularly the PMI and broader business cycle dynamics, is the key determinant of whether altcoins will see a bull market; if PMI expands and signals continued economic expansion, it could be altcoins' last chance to rally, otherwise their long-term prospects are dim. The confluence of post-quantitative tightening macro conditions, a potential PMI expansion, and a technical MACD bullish reversal pattern suggests a high-probability bullish setup for altcoins.
The S&P Pantara digital asset index is a fundamentals-based benchmark requiring positive revenue and a market cap exceeding $500 million, filtering out many altcoins and concentrating eligibility among 18 tokens that account for 99% of eligible protocol revenue. This index, launched by S&P Dow Jones, serves as a new lens for evaluating crypto market growth and institutional allocation, with only six of the 18 qualifying coins currently named. The creator notes that Bitcoin and XRP do not pass the earnings test, and the index is not an ETF. The creator is evaluating a broader list of cryptocurrencies based on real revenue and market cap thresholds as a potential precursor to institutional adoption, suggesting that projects meeting these criteria may be more likely to gain institutional recognition. Some tokens are highlighted as positioned to benefit from institutional interest and narrative momentum in a bull market, particularly as ETFs and financial products are developed around this index. The creator acknowledges the speculative nature of the list and the uncertainty around which tokens are officially included.
A breakout has occurred on the ETHBTC chart, described as the most substantial breakout in nearly a year and potentially one of the most important since the last cycle six years ago. Bitcoin is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a lower right shoulder, and the 618-786 Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low to the neckline is a key area to watch. Ethereum is in a bullish consolidation phase above a key yellow trend line from October 2025 highs, with potential for a breakout if momentum sustains. The breakout above the yellow trend line and 20-week moving average on ETHBTC signals the end of the post-quantitative tightening normalization phase, suggesting a potential shift for altcoins. The PMI chart beginning to expand after a multi-year contraction could signal a potential expansion in market trends, similar to the last bull market.
Bitcoin is forming a speculative inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a potential breakout to $75,000, which could signal the end of the crypto bear market; the formation of a right shoulder and a break above the 200-day moving average at $72 are key signals, while breaking above both the 20-day and 200-day weekly moving averages is seen as a meaningful move similar to the 2018–2019 bottom. Ethereum is approaching a critical resistance level with a potential breakout to $2,500 if support and moving averages hold, and a break above the 20-week moving average could signal macro multicycle bullish confirmation, especially if confirmed by altcoin market cap behavior.
The Clarity Act, described as the most significant crypto legislation in U.S. history, appears to be faltering due to lack of Senate floor scheduling and delays, yet major financial institutions—including JP Morgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, and Visa—are acting as if it is already law, suggesting underlying confidence despite public uncertainty. The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act is nearing a Senate vote, with recent support from the National Fraternal Order of Police resolving a key holdout, though leadership sentiment remains uncertain. The tokenization of all assets is underway, led by institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Charles Schwab through tokenized funds, ETFs, and clearinghouse production trades, signaling a structural shift in finance. Meanwhile, infrastructure buildout by major firms and whale accumulation indicate long-term institutional confidence in crypto, regardless of regulatory timing.
The crypto market is at a decisive moment, with short-term events and uncertainty around legislative action—particularly the Clarity Act—driving price action. Bitcoin may be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with potential for a reversal if the Clarity Act passes by August 7th, while Ethereum remains in a lower consolidation phase and may continue declining until the end of the year. Cardano may form a higher low if Bitcoin sets up a right shoulder, and the market as a whole could signal a turning point if Bitcoin tests a long-term Fibonacci range or Ethereum tests the 1500 level. The overall thesis centers on the interplay between macro catalysts and technical structure, with potential for a rebound if key thresholds are breached.
The creator states that crypto markets are following a different model than traditional four-year cycles, with the current bull and bear markets driven by a new expansionary business cycle correlation. The bull market for Bitcoin and altcoins has not yet fully begun and is preparing to start as the business cycle expands, evidenced by PMI starting to expand and copper versus gold bottoming. The recent rally in Bitcoin from 16,000 to 120,000 occurred during a period of PMI below 50, indicating it was driven by structural factors—such as ETF approval, election hype, and structural demand—rather than cyclical expansion. The creator notes that the current PMI expansion signals an upcoming parabolic bull market for Bitcoin and a reversal in the sideways/downward trend for Ethereum and altcoins. Ethereum is testing the $2,000 area and the 20-week moving average, with a breakout above the weekly 20-week moving average signaling a potential macro move, similar to past bull markets in 2017 and 2019. Bitcoin may be testing a higher low Fibonacci level around 60,000, possibly forming a bottom with a potential inverse head and shoulders, with a breakout possible in the next week or two.
Bitcoin has recovered 61.8% to 78.6% of its previous bear market decline, and a breakout above this range would signal that selling has been absorbed and a new bullish cycle is underway. Long-term holders are accumulating at a record pace, with large whales increasing positions while medium-sized wallets are selling, potentially setting up a technical and macro cycle shift. Bitcoin is in a midcycle consolidation preparing for an expansion phase tied to the business cycle, with technical patterns like an inverse head and shoulders and Fibonacci retracement suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Altcoins are likely at their bottom, with strong indicators suggesting a potential bull market following a deeper dip, and Bitcoin's historical patterns around Fibonacci levels and the 20-week moving average signal a breakout. Bitcoin is testing Fibonacci support, potentially forming a bottom, with a macro shift underway as the 20-week moving average begins to turn up, signaling a possible bull market reversal. We broke the Fibonacci. Now, we're retracing to it. This is one of the most pivotal moments of crypto cycles that we've ever seen, not only for Bitcoin, but for altcoins and the entire crypto market in general.
The creator describes Bitcoin as being at a decisive moment with confluence of the altcoin market cap chart, Bitcoin daily price action, and the weekly MACD momentum oscillator indicating a potential new bull market. The current price dip is framed as a normalization phase following post-quantitative tightening, similar to the 2019 dip, with signs of bullish divergence on multiple momentum indicators suggesting a potential bottom is forming. This consolidation is characterized as a midcycle phase, with Bitcoin not yet having completed its bull move, and the current price action resembling the bullish setup seen in February 2019 when Bitcoin broke above the 200-week and 20-week moving averages, supported by similar MACD momentum. The altcoin market cap is also described as being in a typical bottoming-out formation, with coins near moving averages and approaching a key trend line, potentially setting up for a bullish breakout if confirmed.
The creator posits that Bitcoin and broader crypto are not following a traditional four-year cycle but are instead aligned with the business cycle, with Bitcoin potentially having bottomed in February 2025–2026 amid confluence of oversold RSI, MACD momentum, and a breakout above the 20-week moving average in the BTC vs Gold ratio. Altcoins are seen as preparing to exit their five-year bear market, with the broader crypto market expected to enter a bull phase during the PMI-driven business cycle expansion, particularly as quantitative tightening ends and macro indicators such as copper versus gold and Russell 2000 show cyclical alignment.
The creator believes that Bitcoin and crypto assets are in an opportunity zone, following a business cycle indicated by PMI, with signs of undervaluation and upside potential. The next six months will test two different Bitcoin theories: the traditional 4-year cycle theory and the business cycle theory measured through PMI, and one of these theories will start winning. The creator also notes that with the start of a new period of productivity expansion, crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, are poised to expand along with the broader market cycle, based on historical patterns where Bitcoin has typically followed this trend after periods of expansion.
The creator believes that Bitcoin is showing signs of a bullish divergence, with the current price action breaking below the 50-month moving average and potentially forming a bottom, similar to previous bottoms in 2018 and 2022. The creator notes that altcoins bottomed before Bitcoin did, suggesting a potential difference in current market dynamics compared to June 2022 when quantitative tightening started. Additionally, the creator views the current market conditions as a strong accumulation point, indicating a macro opportunity zone for crypto.
Michael Sailor Strategy approving up to $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization for USD reserves, STRC dividends, and buybacks is bullish for crypto because it turns Bitcoin into real economic infrastructure, enabling high yield digital credit products that attract fresh capital from institutions and yield hungry investors. The creator believes that the current market conditions, marked by headlines and capitulation, present a buying opportunity for Bitcoin, especially with Sailor's treasury actions being innovative for the crypto space. Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence and may be ready for a bounce, with the potential for a higher low on the momentum oscillator. The creator believes that Bitcoin dominance has a strong possibility to move to the upside, and if that happens, it could signal a bullish move in the market, particularly for altcoins, as seen in previous cycles where a similar pattern occurred before major bull markets. Altcoins are showing a bullish sign when they move sideways or up while Bitcoin is making a power move, which supports a macrobull market narrative and altcoin bull market setup.
Cardano was not hacked, but rather third-party wallet software was exploited, resulting in a loss of 16 million ADA across 374 addresses, with emergency rescue measures triggered to secure 129 million ADA for affected users. The situation involves a security incident where Emurgo recovered 129 million ADA from affected wallets, but raises questions about how they accessed keys and identified wallet owners. The creator sees a prolonged and extended downturn in Cardano's price, with a 32% decline from what would have been the bear market low, and believes the current situation reflects a broader crypto market cycle of volatility, downside, and choppiness. Crypto is in an opportunity zone, and the Cardano chart is a good picture of what's been going on in crypto, suggesting a potential long-term entry point.
The creator is entering an accumulation phase for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, viewing the current market conditions as a potential bottoming out phase. They note that Ethereum Foundation is reorganizing and laying off staff, which they interpret as a typical bear market signal. The creator believes we are at a pivot point following a prolonged period of weakness, similar to patterns seen after quantitative tightening and during the COVID dip. They are accumulating altcoins and Bitcoin with a thin and spread-out approach due to uncertainty, but remain comfortable with their portfolio even if crypto goes parabolic.
Informational only — Crypto Capital Venture’s view, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. Levels and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.