The creator argues that the current market dip represents a healthy accumulation phase within a broader macroeconomic shift from quantitative tightening to expansion, viewing Bitcoin and Ethereum's price action as part of a bull market cycle. They suggest that despite short-term volatility and unconfirmed patterns like inverse head and shoulders, the long-term outlook is positive, particularly for altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, and SUI, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming productivity boom.
The creator posits that the market is in a post-quantitative tightening dip, analogous to the 2019-2020 cycle, and is awaiting a 20-week EMA crossing above the 50-week EMA to signal a macro bull market shift. While acknowledging short-term volatility and potential downside to Fibonacci support or the 200-day moving average, the creator identifies bullish setups in Bitcoin (ascending triangle), Ethereum (inverse head and shoulders), and XRP (normalization phase), suggesting that the window for accumulating altcoins remains open despite current business cycle contraction.
The creator argues that crypto is exiting a five-year bear market and approaching a bull trend pivot, with Bitcoin at the apex of an ascending triangle signaling a potential breakout. They assert that the traditional four-year cycle is an illusion and that a productivity boom and turning business cycle will drive the market from bear to bull, while also accumulating exposure in tokenization plays like Midnight, Dog, and Ono.
The creator argues that current market conditions mirror September 2020/2021, with a low altcoin risk model score and a business cycle index indicating an expansion phase, creating a high-probability window for price appreciation. They are averaging into ONDO, SUI, DOG, LINK, Aerodrome, BTC, and Midnight to accumulate positions for this potential bull cycle, noting that while they may have missed optimal entry points for some assets, the accumulation window remains open.
The creator argues that the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle is an illusion and that crypto markets are instead driven by the business cycle, specifically the pivot from contraction to expansion indicated by the ISM PMI and a proprietary copper-to-gold ratio. They assert that the recent Bitcoin all-time high was driven by ETF inflows and a pro-crypto administration rather than a true bull market, and that a new expansion phase—potentially fueled by an AI productivity boom—has just begun, positioning crypto as an accumulation opportunity ahead of a "roaring 90s style" economic upswing.
The creator argues that Knight and Midnight are severely undervalued asymmetric plays with higher upside potential than higher-cap assets like Cardano and Ethereum, driven by privacy narratives and the start of a new altcoin bull market.
The creator argues that a productivity boom and business cycle expansion, similar to the 1990s, are driving Bitcoin's rise and that crypto is becoming central to economic infrastructure, suggesting the traditional four-year cycle may not apply. They view crypto as a lower-risk opportunity on long-term horizons, with the accumulation phase nearing its end ahead of a potential expansion where crypto will significantly outperform the S&P 500.
The creator argues that the crypto market is exiting a year-long accumulation range and entering a new expansion phase, citing low risk scores, expanding PMI data, and Ethereum's proximity to the 20-month moving average as indicators of a cycle shift similar to 2020-2021.
The creator argues that the post-quantitative tightening dip marked an optimal accumulation phase, positioning the current market action as the beginning of a new macro bull cycle for altcoins, supported by low risk model readings and historical parallels to 2019-2021. They specifically highlight Knight (Midnight) as severely undervalued relative to other privacy coins like Monero and Zcash, and view Dogecoin as entering a cycle shift with significant upside potential if Bitcoin breaks out.
The creator argues that their proprietary business cycle model has confirmed expansion for the first time in 50 months, supported by ISM Manufacturing PMI readings above 51 for three consecutive months, signaling the start of a broad crypto bull market where altcoins, currently at low risk levels, are positioned to outperform.
The creator argues that the market is at the beginning of a crypto super cycle driven by the end of quantitative tightening and the start of business cycle expansion, with altcoins breaking out of a 5-6 year bear market. While acknowledging significant bearish divergence and potential for 20-30% pullbacks, the creator views these dips as normal within a new expansion phase where capital moves down the risk curve, potentially outperforming the S&P 500.
The creator argues that a macro shift from contraction to business cycle expansion, signaled by the end of quantitative tightening, is setting up a bull market entry for Ethereum and altcoins. They identify a specific blue trend line on the Ethereum chart as a critical support level that guides short-term volatility and potential higher lows, mirroring historical post-consolidation expansions.
The creator argues that the true Bitcoin bull market has not yet occurred because previous gains happened during a business cycle contraction, and the current economic expansion provides the setup for a major bull market similar to 2017 or 2020-2021. The creator argues that an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, combined with the start of a business cycle expansion, signals a bullish structure forming for Bitcoin. The creator argues that Bitcoin is entering a post-quantitative tightening normalization phase similar to the 2017-2019 cycle, following a record-breaking liquidity extraction and business cycle contraction that ended in December 2025. The creator is reassessing Bitcoin's structure after a failed inverse head and shoulders breakout, arguing that the current market is entering a new business cycle driven by macroeconomic liquidity rather than a four-year crypto cycle. The creator argues that crypto is entering a post-QT normalization phase that aligns with an expanding business cycle, suggesting this structure sets up an entry into the next bull cycle as crypto follows the same macro trends as other asset classes. Altcoins are starting to turn up with the business cycle, and while the inverse head and shoulders pattern on Bitcoin is technically disqualified due to a neckline break, the creator still uses its measured move for price targets within a broader macro range structure. Bitcoin's upside target is a wide range of $137,000 to $390,000, driven by the potential for a 1990s-style productivity boom fueled by AI and institutional adoption, which would allow the asset to achieve a measured move out of the current breakout. Bitcoin will likely top out in the lower range of a measured move from the 15,000 to 70,000 price difference added to the current breakout level, resulting in a target around $137,000, contingent on the strength of the upcoming business cycle. The creator argues that the Bitcoin bull market's timing should be determined by macroeconomic data, liquidity, and the business cycle rather than the four-year cycle theory, noting that the current business cycle expansion and Bitcoin's support at a range dating back to 2021 suggest the bull market has not yet fully materialized. Bitcoin is currently in a sideways range between the 236 Fibonacci level and the zero line, potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern that could lead to an upside breakout, though it may continue to hobble sideways before moving higher. The creator is analyzing whether Bitcoin will form an inverse head and shoulders pattern to trigger a bull market entry toward previous all-time highs, or if it will range sideways to cool down RSI divergence. The creator is presenting their visual interpretation of Bitcoin's weekly cycle to help long-term value investors identify appropriate times to take profits and exit during a bull cycle using a risk-based approach.
The creator argues that the traditional 4-year crypto cycle is being superseded by a business cycle expansion, supported by S&P Global data showing the fastest business growth in over five years. They view Bitcoin as consolidating within a macro range and Ethereum as sitting in a multi-year accumulation zone, expecting a slower, prolonged bull market driven by institutional adoption (BlackRock/Ondo) and a productivity boom rather than parabolic growth.
The creator argues that a "tidal wave" is building for crypto, driven by the convergence of traditional finance infrastructure (NYSE/Blockchain.com), regulatory preparation (CFTC), and AI-driven demand for on-chain settlement. They believe the market is entering a new bull market as the post-quantitative tightening dip concludes and the balance sheet backdrop shifts, creating an environment where crypto benefits from both investment demand and actual economic activity.
The creator argues that Cardano is exiting a long-term bear market and entering a bullish phase driven by macroeconomic expansion, with specific accumulation zones offering entry points before potential breakouts to 40 cents. Additionally, the creator identifies Midnight and Knight as asymmetric plays within the Cardano ecosystem, citing Midnight's privacy narrative and Knight's upcoming removal of sell pressure from token claims as key drivers for significant upside.
The creator argues that crypto is positioned to benefit most from a macro expansion phase driven by AI infrastructure, stablecoin adoption, and tokenization, comparing the current productivity-led cycle to the 1990s. They view crypto as the last asset class to move, currently consolidating while real economic activity and capital inflows catch up to speculation.
The creator identifies as a "permanent bull" who argues that the crypto market is exiting a five-year contraction phase and entering a business cycle expansion, signaling the start of a major bull market. They attribute this shift to institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic liquidity changes, suggesting that assets like Bitcoin, altcoins (including UNI, AVAX, SUI, ICP, ADA, DOGE, and others), and even the Russell 2000 are poised for significant upside, though they emphasize that this is a long-term thesis requiring patience and risk management.
The creator argues that Bitcoin's weekly close above the 50-week moving average and the breakout of altcoins against Bitcoin mirror the January 2020 setup, signaling the end of a five-year liquidity contraction cycle and the start of a monumental bull run.
The creator posits that the market is transitioning from a contraction phase to expansion, signaling a potential new crypto bull cycle driven by institutionalization and macro shifts. To capture this thesis, they are implementing a conservative, risk-based DCA strategy into infrastructure and cultural assets like Chainlink, Ono, and SUI, while acknowledging they may be underexposed in specific portfolio niches.
The creator argues that the macroeconomic environment is shifting from contraction to expansion, resembling the 2020-2021 bull market conditions, which supports a long bias for crypto and altcoins. They attribute this outlook to technical indicators like RSI and MACD pivots, the end of quantitative tightening, and potential legislative catalysts such as the Clarity Act.
The creator argues that the crypto market is exiting a macro contraction and entering an expansion phase driven by the end of energy shocks and geopolitical conflicts, positioning for a bull run where capital flows to altcoins. They identify Ethereum's break of the 20-month moving average as a key signal for this shift, while highlighting specific setups in SUI, Cardano, Midnight, and Dog as high-potential plays within this broader cycle.
The creator identifies a macro bottom structure and potential inverse head and shoulders patterns across multiple timeframes, viewing current price action as a normal part of a cycle shift from bear to bull market. They argue that a drop to the $70,000 range would be a standard retest of the 20-week moving average, similar to the 2023 bottom, before a breakout above the 50-week moving average signals a macro reversal.
The creator maintains a long-term bullish thesis on crypto, arguing that a sustained market expansion is driven by macroeconomic factors like liquidity and the business cycle rather than the outcome of the Clarity Act vote. While acknowledging short-term volatility risks if the bill fails, the creator asserts that their positioning remains unchanged by the legislative hurdle.
The creator argues that Bitcoin is at a macro pivot point where a breakout above the 20-month moving average, supported by economic expansion data, signals the start of a major bull move. This breakout is expected to trigger capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and subsequently into broader altcoins, with Ethereum serving as a key leading indicator for the sector.
The creator sees Bitcoin and crypto decoupling from the S&P 500, along with a pivot toward business-cycle expansion and liquidity, as a setup for a catch-up move and a new bull market or supercycle. The creator also frames the 2025-2026 pivot as a potential starting line for a massive altcoin and Bitcoin comeback.
The creator's thesis is that macro business-cycle data and a risk curve index, rather than short-term Fed or Clarity Act headlines, suggest crypto and Bitcoin may be setting up for a bull market as economic expansion sends money down the risk curve. The creator frames this as a macro cycle read, with Bitcoin dominance potentially rising before falling.
The total crypto market cap is in a unique consolidation phase with high uncertainty and weak sentiment, and Ethereum is serving as a key guide for identifying potential bullish momentum and confirmation in the broader crypto market. A bullish divergence has been observed on the momentum oscillator, though repeated lower lows and MACD signals above the signal line have been faked out, suggesting potential continued sideways movement. Ethereum broke above the yellow trend line, aligning with a prior breakout in 2023, which may signal a potential shift to the upside. The market is approaching a confluent resistance area where the 200-day moving average and the upper trend line intersect around $2,000, and Ethereum is testing the 200-day moving average and key support levels, with a potential breakout or breakdown depending on whether it can sustain a move above the 200-day MA and the pink trend line. Altcoins are in a prolonged consolidation phase relative to BTC dominance, and the breakout could be signaled by Ethereum's price action, particularly around the $1,900 to $2,000 level, which is seen as a key area for confirming bullish momentum.
Bitcoin is trading sideways at the 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as a bottoming out signal across cycles. The market is currently in a post-quantitative tightening phase, squeezing within a lower trend line and a massive macro trend line, similar to a prior bottom in 2019, waiting for a breakout. Michael Sailor's strategy is implementing its long-term business mechanism, selling Bitcoin while ETF inflows have been eight times higher than the amount sold, indicating broader market strength despite short-term negative headlines. Sailor's Bitcoin sales are not a major market concern because he still owns a significant portion of supply, and major holders like BitMine and Ethereum are buying at low cost basis, indicating long-term confidence. Bitcoin is in an oversold, low-risk territory with support at the 20 and 50-day moving averages, and the price is currently ranging between $63,200 and $64,200, with potential for a breakout to the upside or a test of lower lows around $60,000. Even if price goes lower, it presents a meaningful accumulation opportunity for macro investors. The market is also forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66,000, and the current consolidation near the 20 and 50-day moving averages suggests a pending right shoulder setup.
Bitcoin is approaching a potential inverse head and shoulders breakout, with the 200-day moving average at $70,000 acting as a key macro reversal area after a year-long downtrend. The creator notes that when long-term holders are underwater, it's the best time to buy, and Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone. The LTH MVRV ratio falling below one could be a strong signal to buy, especially if Bitcoin experiences a capitulation, indicating accumulation territory. Altcoins, including SUI and Cardano, are considered undervalued and potentially in a heavier buy zone, especially as we may be nearing the end of the post-QT dip, with a possible upside burst ahead. The creator observes that we are in an accumulation zone for altcoins and crypto overall, with macro cycles and onchain metrics indicating a potential shift into expansion.
When devastating news doesn't affect price, the bottom is close, and the current wave of negative headlines coinciding with technical indicators like bullish divergence and low risk models suggest a crypto structured bottom is forming. Crypto is at a bullish macroeconomic inflection point as quantitative tightening ends and expansion begins, with institutional adoption like Sailor's Bitcoin reserve strategy signaling strong conviction. The Sailor model is being proven in real time, with corporate treasury accumulation during downturns, demonstrating a bullish case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence on the weekly chart with record-breaking oversold conditions on MACD, forming a potential bottom at the 200-week moving average, coinciding with institutional adoption and the corporate treasury model being proven. We're in a sideways consolidation phase, but the underlying macro conditions—specifically the PMI expansion—are signaling a potential upcoming crypto expansion, similar to previous cycles, with structural formations and bottoming out areas forming over time. Crypto is part of the broader macroeconomic environment and is influenced by the business cycle and economic growth, with the potential for both failure and expansion.
Ethereum bulls are pressing just below a long-standing resistance area since 2023, and Cardano is in a setup not seen since 2020 after five years of consolidation, signaling a potential major altcoin bull run. The ETHBTC pair is testing the 20-month moving average and breaking a key trend line, with structural similarities to the post-quantitative tightening bottom in 2020, suggesting a potential reversal at this macro-technical intersection. Ethereum's price action is mirroring past structural patterns and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and liquidity, similar to other asset classes. Ethereum is currently between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, with confluence of a long-term trend line from 2022 providing macro and short-term support, and the market is in a consolidation phase where a breakout above the 200-day MA could signal a bullish cycle reversal. SUI is positioned well for a crypto bull run with strong institutional interest and favorable technicals on the monthly and weekly charts, particularly with the MACD and RSI showing potential for a reversal. When SUI breaks and holds above the 20-week moving average, that's where special things happen for SUI. If ADA breaks above the 200-day moving average at 24 cents, it could signal a macro reversal similar to Ethereum, indicating a potential major upward move. Cardano is showing a macroeconomic setup similar to ETHBTC, with a potential breakout above the 20-week moving average and testing of the 50-week moving average at 38 to 40 cents, which could signal a shift in the cycle. The macro environment, particularly the PMI and broader business cycle dynamics, is the key determinant of whether altcoins will see a bull market; if PMI expands and signals continued economic expansion, it could be altcoins' last chance to rally, otherwise their long-term prospects are dim. The confluence of post-quantitative tightening macro conditions, a potential PMI expansion, and a technical MACD bullish reversal pattern suggests a high-probability bullish setup for altcoins.
The creator argues that Solana's strong fundamentals (institutional adoption, revenue) diverging from 10 months of red price candles represents a rare, high-conviction accumulation zone, suggesting the bottom is in as part of a broader crypto cycle bottom.
The creator posits that the market is at a short-term pivot point with a fractal similarity to the March 27th structure, suggesting potential downside volatility or a test of support levels before a possible bounce; while Ethereum shows relative strength via an ETHBTC breakout, Bitcoin faces risk of failing support and sweeping lower, with the broader altcoin market cap testing critical moving averages that may signal a macro cycle shift.
The S&P Pantara digital asset index is a fundamentals-based benchmark requiring positive revenue and a market cap exceeding $500 million, filtering out many altcoins and concentrating eligibility among 18 tokens that account for 99% of eligible protocol revenue. This index, launched by S&P Dow Jones, serves as a new lens for evaluating crypto market growth and institutional allocation, with only six of the 18 qualifying coins currently named. The creator notes that Bitcoin and XRP do not pass the earnings test, and the index is not an ETF. The creator is evaluating a broader list of cryptocurrencies based on real revenue and market cap thresholds as a potential precursor to institutional adoption, suggesting that projects meeting these criteria may be more likely to gain institutional recognition. Some tokens are highlighted as positioned to benefit from institutional interest and narrative momentum in a bull market, particularly as ETFs and financial products are developed around this index. The creator acknowledges the speculative nature of the list and the uncertainty around which tokens are officially included.
A breakout has occurred on the ETHBTC chart, described as the most substantial breakout in nearly a year and potentially one of the most important since the last cycle six years ago. Bitcoin is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a lower right shoulder, and the 618-786 Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low to the neckline is a key area to watch. Ethereum is in a bullish consolidation phase above a key yellow trend line from October 2025 highs, with potential for a breakout if momentum sustains. The breakout above the yellow trend line and 20-week moving average on ETHBTC signals the end of the post-quantitative tightening normalization phase, suggesting a potential shift for altcoins. The PMI chart beginning to expand after a multi-year contraction could signal a potential expansion in market trends, similar to the last bull market.
Bitcoin is forming a speculative inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a potential breakout to $75,000, which could signal the end of the crypto bear market; the formation of a right shoulder and a break above the 200-day moving average at $72 are key signals, while breaking above both the 20-day and 200-day weekly moving averages is seen as a meaningful move similar to the 2018–2019 bottom. Ethereum is approaching a critical resistance level with a potential breakout to $2,500 if support and moving averages hold, and a break above the 20-week moving average could signal macro multicycle bullish confirmation, especially if confirmed by altcoin market cap behavior.
The creator argues that altcoin bull markets are historically triggered when the ISM Manufacturing PMI crosses above 55 with rising momentum, a threshold the current data is approaching. They attribute this potential shift to an AI-driven productivity boom that will push the economy into expansion, favoring risk assets over safe havens.
The Clarity Act, described as the most significant crypto legislation in U.S. history, appears to be faltering due to lack of Senate floor scheduling and delays, yet major financial institutions—including JP Morgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, and Visa—are acting as if it is already law, suggesting underlying confidence despite public uncertainty. The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act is nearing a Senate vote, with recent support from the National Fraternal Order of Police resolving a key holdout, though leadership sentiment remains uncertain. The tokenization of all assets is underway, led by institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Charles Schwab through tokenized funds, ETFs, and clearinghouse production trades, signaling a structural shift in finance. Meanwhile, infrastructure buildout by major firms and whale accumulation indicate long-term institutional confidence in crypto, regardless of regulatory timing.
The crypto market is at a decisive moment, with short-term events and uncertainty around legislative action—particularly the Clarity Act—driving price action. Bitcoin may be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with potential for a reversal if the Clarity Act passes by August 7th, while Ethereum remains in a lower consolidation phase and may continue declining until the end of the year. Cardano may form a higher low if Bitcoin sets up a right shoulder, and the market as a whole could signal a turning point if Bitcoin tests a long-term Fibonacci range or Ethereum tests the 1500 level. The overall thesis centers on the interplay between macro catalysts and technical structure, with potential for a rebound if key thresholds are breached.
The creator argues that Bitcoin and Ethereum are forming inverse head and shoulders patterns, with Ethereum currently testing a multi-year trendline confluence zone. The thesis is that a breakout above the 200-day moving average for both assets would confirm a structural bottom and initiate a macro bullish reversal for the broader crypto market.
The creator states that crypto markets are following a different model than traditional four-year cycles, with the current bull and bear markets driven by a new expansionary business cycle correlation. The bull market for Bitcoin and altcoins has not yet fully begun and is preparing to start as the business cycle expands, evidenced by PMI starting to expand and copper versus gold bottoming. The recent rally in Bitcoin from 16,000 to 120,000 occurred during a period of PMI below 50, indicating it was driven by structural factors—such as ETF approval, election hype, and structural demand—rather than cyclical expansion. The creator notes that the current PMI expansion signals an upcoming parabolic bull market for Bitcoin and a reversal in the sideways/downward trend for Ethereum and altcoins. Ethereum is testing the $2,000 area and the 20-week moving average, with a breakout above the weekly 20-week moving average signaling a potential macro move, similar to past bull markets in 2017 and 2019. Bitcoin may be testing a higher low Fibonacci level around 60,000, possibly forming a bottom with a potential inverse head and shoulders, with a breakout possible in the next week or two.
Bitcoin has recovered 61.8% to 78.6% of its previous bear market decline, and a breakout above this range would signal that selling has been absorbed and a new bullish cycle is underway. Long-term holders are accumulating at a record pace, with large whales increasing positions while medium-sized wallets are selling, potentially setting up a technical and macro cycle shift. Bitcoin is in a midcycle consolidation preparing for an expansion phase tied to the business cycle, with technical patterns like an inverse head and shoulders and Fibonacci retracement suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Altcoins are likely at their bottom, with strong indicators suggesting a potential bull market following a deeper dip, and Bitcoin's historical patterns around Fibonacci levels and the 20-week moving average signal a breakout. Bitcoin is testing Fibonacci support, potentially forming a bottom, with a macro shift underway as the 20-week moving average begins to turn up, signaling a possible bull market reversal. We broke the Fibonacci. Now, we're retracing to it. This is one of the most pivotal moments of crypto cycles that we've ever seen, not only for Bitcoin, but for altcoins and the entire crypto market in general.
The creator describes Bitcoin as being at a decisive moment with confluence of the altcoin market cap chart, Bitcoin daily price action, and the weekly MACD momentum oscillator indicating a potential new bull market. The current price dip is framed as a normalization phase following post-quantitative tightening, similar to the 2019 dip, with signs of bullish divergence on multiple momentum indicators suggesting a potential bottom is forming. This consolidation is characterized as a midcycle phase, with Bitcoin not yet having completed its bull move, and the current price action resembling the bullish setup seen in February 2019 when Bitcoin broke above the 200-week and 20-week moving averages, supported by similar MACD momentum. The altcoin market cap is also described as being in a typical bottoming-out formation, with coins near moving averages and approaching a key trend line, potentially setting up for a bullish breakout if confirmed.
The creator argues that Cardano is in a bottoming phase at multi-year lows, presenting a value play where strong network fundamentals, whale accumulation, and upcoming catalysts (such as the Van Rossum hard fork and a potential spot ETF decision) are currently mispriced by the market.
The creator posits that Bitcoin and broader crypto are not following a traditional four-year cycle but are instead aligned with the business cycle, with Bitcoin potentially having bottomed in February 2025–2026 amid confluence of oversold RSI, MACD momentum, and a breakout above the 20-week moving average in the BTC vs Gold ratio. Altcoins are seen as preparing to exit their five-year bear market, with the broader crypto market expected to enter a bull phase during the PMI-driven business cycle expansion, particularly as quantitative tightening ends and macro indicators such as copper versus gold and Russell 2000 show cyclical alignment.
The creator believes that Bitcoin and crypto assets are in an opportunity zone, following a business cycle indicated by PMI, with signs of undervaluation and upside potential. The next six months will test two different Bitcoin theories: the traditional 4-year cycle theory and the business cycle theory measured through PMI, and one of these theories will start winning. The creator also notes that with the start of a new period of productivity expansion, crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, are poised to expand along with the broader market cycle, based on historical patterns where Bitcoin has typically followed this trend after periods of expansion.
Informational only — Crypto Capital Venture’s view, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. Levels and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.