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40-50% Market Crash Coming: ‘Big Money Already Starting to Dump’ | Gareth Soloway & Michelle Makori

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00lesson

Market Correction Outlook

  • 40-50% drawdown possible
  • Stagflationary environment likely
  • Fed rate cuts expected in 2027
1:58lesson

US Economic Fundamentals

  • 3% growth target
  • Energy production up 3 million bbl/day
  • Deficit to GDP ratio target 3%
4:25lesson

Oil Market Analysis

  • WTI below $70
  • Support at $65-70
  • Potential $50 barrel by year-end
6:41CL· ticker

Oil — Technical Support Levels

  • Support at $65-70
  • Short-term bounce to $80
  • Break below $67 triggers further decline
8:28lesson

Consumer Spending and Inflation

  • Consumer spending revised down to 0.5%
  • PCE price index at 4.1%
  • Core PCE at 3.4%
10:24lesson

Fed Policy and Rate Outlook

  • No rate hike expected before year-end
  • First rate cut in Q1 2027
  • Less Fed communication increases volatility
14:05lesson

Market Volatility and Fed Uncertainty

  • Less Fed guidance increases uncertainty
  • More intraday volatility expected
  • Retail investor risk increases
17:42lesson

Market Outlook and Corrections

  • Markets likely end lower
  • S&P 500 down 20% possible
  • NASDAQ down 10-20% likely
19:29lesson

2027 Market Corrections

  • 40-50% S&P 500 drawdown possible
  • AI stocks likely to decline
  • Market correction expected
21:19lesson

AI Stock Cycle and Micron

  • Micron down 75% within 12-18 months
  • AI trade showing signs of topping
  • Nvidia, Broadcom, MRVL all declining
23:17MU· ticker

Micron — 75% Downside Potential

  • Micron at all-time high
  • Projected 75% decline in 12-18 months
  • SKHEX IPO may accelerate decline
25:04lesson

Market Cycles and Psychology

  • Tesla 75% drawdown pattern
  • Amazon 95% drop pattern
  • Cisco 86% drop pattern
26:58lesson

Micron IPO Impact

  • SKHEX IPO on July 10th
  • Potential capital rotation from Micron
  • Micron may decline before IPO
28:48lesson

Market Liquidity and IPOs

  • Anthropic, OpenAI IPOs planned
  • SpaceX IPO performance
  • Market liquidity concerns
30:44lesson

AI Stock Concentration

  • Top 25 AI stocks account for 42% of market cap
  • Dot bubble comparison
  • Risk of market crash
32:39lesson

Chip Sector Competition

  • IBM chip announcement
  • Broadcom and Nvidia selling off
  • Margins likely to decline
34:31lesson

Market Rotation and Capital Flow

  • Bond market showing interest
  • US dollar resurgence
  • Capital rotation into safe-haven assets
36:11CRAFT· ticker

Craft Brew Alliance — Dividend Play

  • Dividend yield 10%
  • Stock at decade lows
  • Potential 20-30% upside
37:56XAG· ticker

Silver — $50 Support Level

  • Current price around $56
  • Support at $50
  • Anticipated buying at $50
41:29lesson

Silver Fundamentals vs Technicals

  • Industrial demand ramping
  • Photo voltaics supply deficit
  • Fundamentals support upside
43:09lesson

Silver Physical Delivery Trends

  • Increasing physical delivery
  • East-west exchange opening
  • Central bank buying patterns
44:55lesson

Silver Market Manipulation

  • Central bank buying at discount
  • Retail fear driving price down
  • Insider trading concerns
46:49XAU· ticker

Gold — $3500 Support Level

  • Current price above $4000
  • Support at $3500
  • Potential 10K target
48:31lesson

Gold Market Dynamics

  • Gold as insurance policy
  • Risk-on trade deteriorating
  • Weak hands being flushed out
50:16lesson

Debasement Trade and Gold

  • Debasement trade fading
  • Trump's Fed nomination impact
  • Institutional buying expected
52:14BTC· ticker

Bitcoin — $50K Support Level

  • Current price near $50K
  • Support at $50K
  • Potential 80-85K target
54:04lesson

Bitcoin Sentiment and Cycles

  • Retail fear increasing
  • Historical cycle patterns
  • Potential 50K bounce
55:46lesson

Bitcoin Risk Factors

  • MicroStrategy leveraged positions
  • Potential 99% collapse risk
  • Market volatility expected
57:47lesson

Bitcoin Bullish Scenario

  • AI trade unwind
  • Fed quantitative easing
  • Debasement trade revival
59:38lesson

Market Psychology and Cycles

  • Fear and greed cycle
  • Stock market euphoria
  • Central bank printing risks
1:01:27XAU· ticker

Gold — Major Buy Levels

  • Below $4000 level
  • Support at $3500
  • Accumulation opportunity
1:03:11CRAFT· ticker

Craft Brew Alliance — Value Play

  • Dividend yield 10%
  • Stock at COVID levels
  • Potential 20-30% upside
1:04:56XAG· ticker

Silver — $50 Target

  • Current price around $56
  • Support at $50
  • Accumulation opportunity
1:06:51lesson

Passive Investing Risks

  • Market panic during sustained dips
  • 20%+ corrections possible
  • Investor psychology concerns
1:08:30lesson

Trading Duration and Strategy

  • 2-4 week trade duration
  • 20 trades before 20% correction
  • Swing trader approach

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