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Does the Market Madness associated with Mercury in Retrograde mean Murder for your Portfolio...?

decoded from Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • FinancemacroMarket UpdateWatch on YouTube

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00lesson

Volatility index and equity divergence

Volatility index bounced 33% from 15 to 20
Equity indices show divergence
Russell 2000 and Dow made slight gains
S&P 500 fell slightly
NASDAQ fell 2-3%
Yields coming down after rising for a while
Oil moving higher
Anticipation of election results
Increased expectations of hostilities in Iran
Time and delayed catalysts
Geopolitical alignment

1:55lesson

Technical analysis of equity indices

Dow at support of 100 and 50-day moving averages
Stochastics very high for Dow
S&P 500 below 50-day but above 100-day
Stochastics barely above 30
NASDAQ below both 100 and 50-day
10-15% above 200-day
Russell 2000 below all moving averages
Retesting 200-day moving average
Footsie at support with momentum rolling over
Euro stocks below both 100 and 50-day
Stochastics and relative strength low

3:58lesson

Market sentiment and support levels

Nikkei had big drawdown
Stochastics at rock bottom
Sitting above 200-day moving average
Potential buying opportunity at support
Gold storage fees over 10 years
5 ounces lost
Monetary Metals offers yield in gold
Lease physical metal to businesses
Earn monthly interest in more ounces
Account free to open with 10 ounces

5:55lesson

Geopolitical and market dynamics

Brazil had bounce after election
Bolsonaro won initial round
Runoff in next 10 days
Political shift in South America
Nvidia at 100-day moving average
10-15% above 200-day
Stochastics low
Freeport McMoran at 200-day moving average
Sentiment not great
Relative strength and stochastics low

7:52lesson

Yield and credit default spreads

10-year yield came down significantly
Stochcastics came down as well
30-year yield also came down
Yields came back to previous levels
Flight to safety or overpositioning
Credit default spreads (CDX) started to rise
Volatility and uncertainty under the surface
Investment grade and high yield both spiked in March
Crash back to lower levels over summer
Crude oil at 101, Brent at 116

9:44lesson

Natural gas, wheat, and dollar dynamics

Natural gas prices bounced along the bottom
Europe's natural gas higher
Wheat and corn pulled back to 200-day moving average
Longs added in spring and summer
Pullback after jump higher
Support level at risk of breaking
Dollar rose with VIX
DXY near 102
Stochcastics dropped below 10
Bitcoin fell 5% to above 100-day moving average

11:22lesson

Gold, silver, and positioning

Gold and silver had bad week
Gold closed below 4,000
Sentiment very low
Stochcastics very low
Commercial short positions higher
Price coming down as shorts get covered
Silver at lowest since year
Short positions getting smaller
Potential for bounce or further decline

13:11lesson

Copper and market positioning

Copper pulled back to 50-day moving average
Sitting right at 100-day moving average
Well above 200-day moving average
Potential for test of 200-day moving average
Short positions significant
Covering shorts as price comes down
Buying opportunity as shorts get covered

14:53lesson

Volatility index and market catalysts

Volatility index (VIX) and its causes
Technical analysis, momentum, relative strength
Tactical trades based on charts
Domestic catalysts and fundamental factors
Geopolitical catalysts
Fed potential policy change next week
Election in two weeks
Geopolitical tensions with Iran, China, Russia

16:28lesson

Mercury retrograde and market impact

Mercury retrograde and its effect on markets
Mercury appears to move backward due to orbital mechanics
Retrograde and shadow periods
50% of the year in retrograde
VIX higher during retrograde and shadow periods
Historical examples of volatility during retrograde
Not a perfect indicator, but interesting phenomenon

18:29lesson

Historical volatility and retrograde

VIX higher during retrograde and shadow periods
Post-2008 trend more pronounced
Investing during non-retrograde periods outperformed
Investing during retrograde periods underperformed
2020 and 2022 examples of volatility during retrograde
Market drawdowns and VIX spikes
Not scientific, but interesting observation

20:30lesson

Retrograde and market performance

VIX spikes during retrograde and shadow periods
2020 example of volatility during retrograde
2022 example of market drawdowns during retrograde
Market rallies after exiting retrograde
Not perfect, but interesting pattern
Not scientific, but worth noting

22:47lesson

Retrograde and market trends

Market trends and retrograde periods
2026 example of volatility during retrograde
War in Iran and VIX spike
Market rally after exiting retrograde
Not perfect, but interesting observation
Not scientific, but worth noting

24:53lesson

Retrograde and market performance

Market performance during retrograde and shadow periods
Investing during non-retrograde periods outperformed
Investing during retrograde periods underperformed
2019-2020 example of market trends
Not perfect, but interesting observation
Not scientific, but worth noting

26:45lesson

Retrograde and market performance

Euro stocks and retrograde periods
Investing during non-retrograde periods outperformed
Investing during retrograde periods underperformed
2000-2020 example of market trends
Not perfect, but interesting observation
Not scientific, but worth noting

29:01lesson

Retrograde and market performance

Gold and oil not affected by retrograde
Gold and oil performance during retrograde
Not perfect, but interesting observation
Not scientific, but worth noting

31:02lesson

Retrograde and market performance

Market performance over 100 years
Investing during non-retrograde periods outperformed
Investing during retrograde periods underperformed
Not perfect, but interesting observation
Not scientific, but worth noting

33:09lesson

Conclusion and future outlook

No guarantee of market performance based on retrograde
Not scientific, but worth noting
Market dynamics and catalysts
New show: Transatlantic Takeaway
Debating topics including retrograde

Informational only — this is Brent Johnson Milkshakes Pod | Investing • Finance’s content, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. The outline, timestamps, and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.