The creator surveys major indices and sectors, noting that while the Nasdaq and S&P had breakout attempts, they lacked follow-through, the Dow is in a downtrend despite a recent rally, and the Hang Seng is expected to decline further. Additionally, the creator observes that the S&P 500 failed to reach lifetime highs and the Russell 2000 broke a key uptrend, while the AI bubble trade remains alive but dull, and the Dow Transports and Utilities sectors are in wretched shape due to high energy costs and broad downtrends. The creator also describes XAU as a "borefest" with no notable thesis, while noting XOI has doubled in value due to an energy-friendly administration but has recently eased off.
The creator is re-recording audio for a survey of 34 shorts split into two portfolios, noting that the visual data includes stop-loss lines. They are reviewing a list of holdings or tickers, noting specific negative narratives for Oracle (hyperscaling), United Healthcare (media criticism), and IonQ (money-losing), while dismissing a specific bar chart as bogus.
The creator characterizes the current environment as a stock picker's market where individual names like ASTS and CRDO are trading while index trends wiggle, while noting that bonds have hit new lows and interest rates are rising. They are waiting for a better entry point in gold, which has underperformed Bitcoin, and view crude oil as stagnant.
The creator argues that exponential growth in federal debt and persistent, potentially understated inflation are driving a bear market in bonds and rising interest rates, which has reversed prior technical setups and is causing a collapse in home building activity and valuations.
The creator presents a bearish outlook on major indices ahead of CPI, citing breakdowns in the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500, while noting that rising oil prices and a failed bullish breakout in the S&P 500 signal a shift away from market complacency.
The creator describes a mixed portfolio strategy, maintaining short positions on ES, NQ, and IWM based on range-bound or breakdown patterns, while simultaneously holding aggressive long positions in tech and small-cap ETFs (SMH, EWY) and monitoring potential long entries in gold and crude oil.
The bulls are absolutely in control again, and the market has closed above a lifetime high, indicating a strong upward momentum. The symmetric triangle has cut above the trend line, but it hasn't violated it yet, and the market is not at lifetime highs, which are about 1100 points away. The market is in a bad state with bears looking strong, and the VIX is at extremely low levels, indicating widespread complacency despite ongoing declines.
Crude oil is on the rise and may get a lot higher due to geopolitical developments, with a basing pattern forming after an explosive spike and subsequent lower highs. ES is bullishly configured and continues to be an existential threat to bears; bonds are in a seventh-year bear market and expected to continue collapsing, while tech stocks like ENQ are obeying a trend line with a symmetric triangle formation. The semiconductor index (SMH) is showing bearish momentum, and the broader market environment of rising interest rates and collapsing bonds suggests a negative outlook, with potential for further downside after the midterms. The market has generally sucked for the bears for the past eight trading days except today was pretty good and it'd be nice to see more of it.
The creator describes a market that has been range-bound since May due to a conflict between political support and economic reality, currently sitting near the top of that range in a low-volatility environment. While holding a short position on NQ as the only major index with a bearish chart, the creator is minimizing risk by taking profits on other shorts and staying light on positions due to frustration with ongoing geopolitical distractions.
The market reacted positively to Trump's boy Kevin Worsh's comments, but equities were volatile, with ES bottoming about two hours and 10 minutes into the trading day before rallying unexpectedly. The creator noted a price gap closure in SPY and ES, which prompted a short position, calling it a "brilliant trading decision." A diamond pattern was observed in Carvana and Meta, with the expectation of a sharp decline. The creator also referenced a prior breakdown in ENQ as a potential model for broader market participation.
The creator stated that they still favor semiconductors on the short side, noting that support has become resistance and describing a "fantastic chart" with a "shooting star" pattern and a "beautiful rounded top" on AMD. Additionally, the creator observed that Seagate formed a head and shoulders pattern with a measured move target aligning with a price gap.
The market has been forming a series of lower highs since the lifetime high on June 22, with recent price action showing increasing chaos and failure of support, particularly on Friday, suggesting a breakdown; the completion of a diamond pattern in SMH adds to the bearish thesis. Long term, this looks very bearish. We need to break below the low of June 9th, which is 685.62, to set us on course for a tumble down to as far as this area around 635.
The creator maintains a heavily short position with 200% exposure across semiconductors, memory stocks, and specific equities like Carvana, describing the stance as a "hate trade" against political commentary. They identify topping patterns on four-hour charts and expect a breakdown in SMH and a "diamond crack" in Carvana if key support levels fail.
The creator's thesis is that SOXL, a leveraged bullish ETF on the semiconductor sector, has shown a strong upward trend with successive highs, though each subsequent high shows decreasing energy, indicating a potential weakening of the momentum. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) has a history of topping and dropping, with instances of nice tops followed by big dips below, and the most recent instance shows a rounded top forming and starting to break down. The creator is short AMD, ARM Holdings, Broadcom (AVGO), and AXTI, believing that these stocks have peaked and are showing signs of weakness or topping patterns, with specific resistance levels identified for each. The creator is short SOXS, which is the inverse of SOXL, and believes the stock has completed an inverted cup with handle pattern and broken down. The creator believes the SOX semiconductor index may have turned the corner from its long-term bull market, with a potential reversal signaled by a price gap, and they are playing this with a combination of individual shorts and long January 2027 SMH puts.
There's a lovely perspective set up for a really serious tumble with a target of somewhere maybe down around there, and Bitcoin is setting up a challenge to the psychologically crucial $60,000 level, with the creator shorting this by way of being long BITI, also wanting crypto to get the crap kicked out of it. LEN is rallying because they're home builders, but the creator is maintaining their January puts and not dumping them, indicating a cautious approach.
Informational only — Slope of Hope’s view, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. Levels and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.