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The Chart Guys

FOMC Done. Now What?

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Chapters15 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00lesson

FOMC reaction and pattern analysis

  • FOMC reaction is key for market analysis
  • NASDAQ falling wedge pattern still in play
  • Gold also shows falling wedge pattern
  • Tomorrow provides probability info on wedge
  • Financial sector bounce at extremes
2:04lesson

Trading FOMC days

  • Most traders shouldn't trade FOMC days
  • Volatility is high on FOMC days
  • Top and bottom fishing key levels
  • Stair steps for risk-reward
  • Ideal entry points at high and low of the day
4:15NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ reaction to FOMC

  • NASDAQ had bearish reaction to FOMC
  • High of the day at 71188
  • Bull break followed by rejection
  • Short positions at 711
  • Risk of $11 drop from 711
6:25XLF· ticker

Financial sector reaction

  • Financial sector led the way down
  • XLF hit new lows
  • NASDAQ was sideways
  • Stair steps on five-minute time frame
  • RSI dropped to teens
8:33NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ and financial sector comparison

  • Financial sector freefall vs NASDAQ sideways
  • XLF hit new lows at 1524
  • NASDAQ held low at 319
  • 4-hour super stack indicates extremes
  • Financial sector bottomed first
10:58lesson

FOMC reaction and probability analysis

  • Real reaction is at 2:30 PM
  • Big money takes time to react
  • Falling wedge pattern still valid
  • Bullish reaction needed for confirmation
  • Probability increases if NASDAQ is green
13:12S&P 500· ticker

S&P 500 and weekly EMA 12

  • S&P 500 broke bear and at risk of losing EMA 12
  • Weekly EMA 12 shift is a psychological shift
  • Potential weekly head and shoulders pattern
  • Bulls need to regain daily uptrend
  • 757 close needed for support
15:18NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ components and support

  • SMH and Memory defending support
  • Software sector showing strength
  • Inverse head and shoulders potential
  • Bulls need to regain daily uptrend
  • Mixed bag with different sectors
17:36NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ components and correlation

  • NASDQ components are diverging
  • Semis have more exposure
  • Meta and Apple showing strength
  • Amazon struggling for higher low
  • ETFs like MAGs are not reliable
19:48Tesla· ticker

Tesla and NASDAQ correlation

  • Tesla is trading independently of NASDAQ
  • Weekly higher low potential
  • CRCL and SpaceX on watch
  • SpaceX bulls impressed by recovery
  • Financial sector weakness is key takeaway
22:14SpaceX· ticker

SpaceX and NASDAQ reaction

  • SpaceX bulls impressed by recovery
  • Potential weekly bull flag
  • Testing resistance at 150
  • Bears proved control yesterday
  • Five-minute volume surge indicates strength
24:43Gold· ticker

Gold and potential falling wedge

  • Gold shows potential falling wedge
  • Rejected bear break but no follow through
  • Need hourly trend change for confidence
  • Weekly higher low is key level
  • Silver similar to gold in pattern
26:56Oil· ticker

Oil and technical scenarios

  • Oil bulls in control with weekly lower high
  • Tightening range is most likely scenario
  • Monthly lower high and tightening range expected
  • Tight leash on energy sector positions
  • Avoiding headline-driven trades
29:14lesson

Trading in balancing market environment

  • Balancing market environment means less trading
  • Focus on technical scenarios over headlines
  • Conservative approach with tight stops
  • Locking in profits and avoiding losses
  • Waiting for strong trending markets
31:48lesson

Trading career and market phases

  • Career focused on trending markets
  • Conservative phase with base hits
  • Avoiding significant gains from consolidation
  • Focusing on technical scenarios
  • Leaving money on the table for protection

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