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Crypto Capital Venture

My Crypto Bull Thesis Has A Timeline...(ALTCOIN Reversal?)

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0:00lesson

Business cycle theory and post QT dip reversal

  • PMI expanding signals economic recovery
  • Post QT dip tested as reversal phase
  • Business cycle theory under scrutiny
  • Crypto as last asset to react to economic cycles
  • Russell 2000 and small caps to breakout
  • Copper and gold to bottom
1:57lesson

July as critical month for business cycle thesis

  • Three red Julys preceded by green June
  • Green June absent in current context
  • Oversold territory with strong Julys
  • PMI expansion signals end of post QT dip
  • July as critical test for theory
3:47lesson

Correlation between PMI, crypto, and economic cycles

  • PMI and crypto not always correlated short-term
  • Macro trends drive crypto and traditional markets
  • Crypto as last domino to fall in economic cycle
  • Russell 2000 and copper/gold breaking out
  • Crypto reversal expected with PMI expansion
5:39lesson

Uncertainty in market timing and macroeconomic factors

  • PMI expansion may trigger crypto reversal
  • Uncertainty around global events and policy
  • Disinflation expected as war ends and energy recovers
  • Crypto may bottom in October or Q4
  • Four-year cycle theory not universally accepted
7:36lesson

RSI and cycle pivot analysis for crypto

  • Bullish RSI with higher low pattern
  • Similar to 2022 bottom structure
  • Swing low into oversold with higher low
  • Continuation to upside expected
  • July or August may be red, but reversal starts now
9:27lesson

Macroeconomic factors and crypto's historical correlation

  • Crypto follows macroeconomic trends
  • Record-breaking QT and its impact on markets
  • 200 days post QT may extend dip
  • Decision point for crypto on charts
  • Russell 2000 breakout triggers crypto rally
11:25lesson

All coins and suppression due to PMI contraction

  • All coins suppressed due to PMI contraction
  • QT ending signals expansion for all coins
  • December 1st marks start of expansion
  • Crypto bull thesis despite market skepticism
  • PMI extraction and liquidity contraction suppressed all coins

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