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Long-Term Interest Rates
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Interest rates and their political context
- Rates rising for years
- Politicians prefer lower rates
- Public misunderstands rate mechanics
2:06lesson
Federal debt growth
- Debt over 40 trillion
- Exponential growth
- Log chart shows nominal gains
4:32lesson
Historical debt comparison
- Elon Musk could pay debt in 1980
- Now covers only interest
- Debt has changed significantly
6:37lesson
Treasury bond futures trend
- Bull market in bonds until 2020
- Bond bear market started
- Yields plunged to 1%
8:43lesson
Bond market reversal
- Pattern never completed
- Market flopped after forming base
- War started on February 27
8:44lesson
Yield trends and war impact
- Yield near 5%
- War spoiled bond rally
- Yield on 10-year note near 5%
8:45lesson
Corporate bond yield changes
- BAA-rated bonds yield over 3%
- Yield more than doubled
- Corporate bonds near junk status
8:46lesson
Mortgage rate trends
- 15-year fixed rate near 6.5%
- 30-year mortgages over 7%
- Home builders struggling
8:47lesson
Housing market impact
- Private housing completed top and drop
- Rates impact home building
- Market collapse during summer
8:48lesson
Stock example and market outlook
- Lennar peaked at 200
- Down to 70s now
- Potential further decline
8:49lesson
Inflation and rate outlook
- Inflation here to stay
- Rates likely to accelerate
- Government data understates inflation
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