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Nike Beat Earnings 8 Quarters in a Row and the Stock Fell 60%
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Nike stock performance and valuation
- Nike beat earnings 8 quarters in a row
- Stock down 60% over 8 quarters
- Market cap dropped from 264B to 57B
- Worst stock in Dow this year
- 12-year low at $36/share
2:10lesson
Nike's historical price trends and earnings
- Nike stock down from $170 to $35
- 12-year low since 2014
- No upside momentum in 2024
- Gap downs after earnings
- Market cap at 53B, down from S&P 100
4:12lesson
Options market and implied volatility for Nike
- Implied volatility at 116% for this week
- Implied move of $2.90 over 3 days
- Call skew with more premium on upside
- 30 strike is 5 points out of the money
- Market pricing in upside risk
5:57lesson
End-of-year implied volatility and price targets
- Implied move of $4.87 by December
- 30 strike has 70 cents premium
- 75 strike has 1% probability
- Market pricing in upside velocity
- Options skew reduces as time extends
7:49lesson
Earnings announcement focus and trading strategy
- Implied move of $3 for earnings
- Implied move of < $5 by December
- Market focusing on October 1st
- Trader buying call options for upside
- Risking $100-$200 for potential rally
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