The creator's thesis is that the market is indicating a potential shift in hawkish speculation as the oil supply shock story has been drained, leading to rising bond yields and stabilizing gold. Additionally, gold is consolidating after a period of decline, with signs of weakening selling pressure suggesting interest rates might be less restrictive than previously thought, potentially benefiting stock markets. The economy appears to be experiencing a weakening end demand story in manufacturing, with employment contracting despite strong manufacturing growth, and real earnings turning negative due to inflationary pressures. If economic signs indicate overheating and demand destruction rather than benign disinflation, stocks will likely break down while the dollar rises.
The creator is taking a long position on the overall market, as evidenced by their bullish outlook on ES, YM, and Dow, with lifetime highs noted, and they are also long IWM and short Meta at the start of the day, but ended up being short Meta in a way that resulted in profit. Meta's AI efforts will ultimately fail, and the announcement to sell access to their AI infrastructure is a tacit admission of that failure. SpaceX is going to have less demand for their Colossus access because Meta is going to be getting in on their turf and using their excess capacity. The creator is short on semiconductor stocks like SMH and GLW, believing that the hyperscaler/semiconductor/memory chip/data center rally may be losing momentum, with some individual items showing signs of reversal. Tech is finally getting the jitters, and we're seeing significant downside moves in several names including AMAT, AXTI, LIT, and MRVL. The creator is taking a short position on Lenar (LNR) due to the size and clarity of the pattern forming, which they find sensational. This is a slow mover, but it's going the right way.
The bond market has been in a tight phase for an extended period, with signs of distress emerging in private credit markets, describing it as a slow motion train wreck.
Meta is having a big morning because they're selling off access to their AI infrastructure, which is being embraced by shareholders as good news despite being an admission of not being a leader in the AI space. The creator believes that the current price action for Meta and SpaceX reflects a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, similar to previous bounces, and that crude oil is likely to find equilibrium at a gap level around the mid to high 60s. The creator is observing a shift in tech stocks, with many former high-fliers stalling out or falling, particularly those with gap setups. BITI is a short Bitcoin fund that pays dividends, and the recent drop was due to a large dividend payment scheduled for the record date.
Nike is still the leader in the shoe world with a 61 billion market cap, and despite recent weakness, it's an interesting play to bet on whether it can at least get to 60 or maybe double from where it is right now and get to 80.
Nike is trading at a multi-year low around $41, but the company still trades at 25 times forward earnings, and options are pricing an 8% move on earnings while Nike has averaged nearly 12% over its last eight reports and missed that implied move five out of eight times. Despite recent struggles and declines, Nike remains the leader in the shoe world by market cap, making it an interesting compelling trade with potential to move from current levels to 80. Nike is still the number one shoe maker, and despite challenges in international markets and supply chain issues, the US market remains strong, making it worth a play.
Google is in a potentially good setup for a trade if the stock extends back towards its highs but doesn't break them around earnings, given the current bullish expectations and consensus forecasts.
The creator presents multiple views on Google (GOOGL), with one thesis suggesting that Google joining the Dow Jones will drive fund manager buying, potentially creating upside. Another view positions Google as a hyperscaler in the AI infrastructure stack, seen as a builder that has been punished due to rising memory chip costs. A conflicting short thesis is also presented, centered on upcoming earnings and potential buying pressure, while another long view suggests a pre-earnings runup with favorable seasonality in July. Additionally, a separate setup is described for SPY involving a short put spread strategy.
The market is in a state of indecision, with price action creating interesting setups across benchmark assets, and the key question is where economic data will lead the market. The creator observes that crude oil has erased almost all of its upswing from the war, and the geopolitical risk premium has been washed away, while gold is showing diverging momentum suggesting the downside move might be losing steam. Additionally, the creator suggests that gold and bonds may be signaling that the impetus from higher rates and a more hawkish Fed is overdone and ripe for a rethink, while crude oil may be experiencing a fade in geopolitical risk premium. The economy is showing a rebound in growth driven primarily by investment and a smaller drag from net exports, but consumption is at its lowest contribution in a year, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth model. The creator's thesis is that markets are currently pricing in at least one rate hike in September or October, with a potential second hike this year followed by a rate cut next year, suggesting a relatively neutral bias on monetary policy with a focus on inflation dynamics and demand destruction in the service sector.
IBIT is down 3% and has been lunging its way lower since the October peak when it was approaching $130,000, and the creator was already short and added to the position.
The market is showing a steady upward trend since March 30 with few interruptions, and both DIAMONDS and IWM are performing well, with DIAMONDS approaching lifetime highs and IWM showing stronger percentage gains. The creator is short EFA and believes the market will not violate the price gap, which serves as a key support level for the short position. IBIT is down 3% and has been lunging its way lower since the top in October when it was approaching $130,000, now down to $58,000, showing a steady series of pattern and drop, and the creator is long BITI with a measured move calculation of 42. If the inverted head and shoulders pattern completes, it would indicate way lower prices for Bitcoin. Crypto is the only asset class which is reliably bearish and has been so for about 8 months now. The creator is observing several stocks that have broken their uptrends or are showing signs of weakness, with some notable reversals and pullbacks. The creator is observing WDC which hasn't broken its uptrend yet, INQ which has rallied over 1,000 points and is rangebound with resistance at a peak that is also a lifetime high, and SMH which has a gap that could be tested to see if it gets respected or trampled upon.
Bitcoin has been in a steady breakdown from its October peak at almost 130,000 down to the 50s, and the crypto market generally is seen as an organic market with minimal government interference that's chart friendly. The market is showing signs of sector rotation and dispersion, with the SPY pushing past a previous gap, and STRC popping 8% following a dividend increase. BITI is looking for completion of a big inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is part of any sort of Bitcoin breakdown into the lower 50s. The creator is observing a rangebound phenomenon with XRT and KSS, and is looking at Q and SMH for potential moves, with a focus on the gap on SMH and a long-term fear about SpaceX's wobbly performance. The creator is discussing the potential impact of opening islands going public, with a focus on SpaceX and Anthropic, and how this might affect the market, particularly in relation to OpenAI's future ticker symbol.
The market is in a quarter-end rally phase, with improving breadth and potential for further gains, while labor market data could shift the Fed's narrative and influence interest rate expectations. The AI infrastructure buildout is being funded by major players like Samsung, SKH Highix, Oracle, SoftBank, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Apple, but the key question is who can finance this without harming future returns and creating demand destruction, as seen with Apple's price hikes; the market is starting to separate AI beneficiaries with pricing power from those absorbing higher costs or raising capital into crowded expectations.
The creator believes that Brent crude is likely to rebound from its current low of around 70, with WTI trading at a three to four-dollar differential, and expects the market to move back above 80 dollars by August to September as refiners rebuild inventory and meet demand.
IBIT is attractively priced at $33, and there's a higher probability of being in the money to the downside based on current implied volatility, with put skew being interesting and potentially beneficial for premium selling opportunities.
The creator is trading Bitcoin via IBIT and BTC, looking for long positions at current levels, using short puts and long calls, with the belief that this could be a good entry point despite general market hesitation. The creator finds the current price point of IBIT at $33 very attractive and believes it's worth taking a shot, particularly with the August options cycle showing a higher probability of being in the money to the downside based on current implied volatility. If you're a believer that Bitcoin will eventually rally and if it rallies quickly, you'll have calls queue get more into this product and that kind of strategy makes a ton of sense, but if you were to do it in August or September, any of these cycles where you can see puts queue a little bit, you're actually getting a better setup where you're collecting more value for the short put.
The creator's thesis is that SOXL, a leveraged bullish ETF on the semiconductor sector, has shown a strong upward trend with recent breakouts above resistance, but the energy is depleting with each successive high. Applied Optoelectronics is in a long-term bullish trend with a history of significant gains, but recent signs of exhaustion and topping patterns suggest potential consolidation or correction. The creator is short AMD, ARM Holdings, and AXT Inc., with the thesis that these stocks are showing signs of weakening momentum and potential topping patterns, with specific resistance levels identified for each. The creator is short SOXS, which is the inverse of SOXL, and believes the stock has completed an inverted cup with handle pattern and broken down. The creator believes that the SOX index and SMH ETF, which track the semiconductor industry, may have turned the corner from a 18-year bull market, with a potential reversal indicated by a price gap, and they are playing this with a combination of individual shorts and long January 2027 SMH puts.
Traders are paying for downside protection in Intel and AMD due to recent significant upside moves, similar to setups seen in Micron and SanDisk, with substantial put buying indicating bearish sentiment. The creator describes a classic signal versus noise setup involving Intel, where Nancy Pelosi's purchase of deep in the money calls is countered by anonymous put sellers, creating a crowded bearish trade that could lead to either continued downside or a squeeze higher if the stock moves vertically. Intel is in a strong uptrend driven by geopolitical and political headlines, with AI representing 60% of its revenue, and the stock has shown massive gains over the past year. The creator believes that there is exhaustion in the market, and that some investors are trying to take advantage of this by playing for big downside moves in names like NVDA and AAPL, potentially leading to rotation into value stocks like COST and WMT. The market is showing that these semiconductor stocks are no longer the dusty stocks from the last 15 years, and if they were to grow to the size of companies like Micron, their stock prices would increase dramatically. The creator is following momentum and buying at the one-month moving average until smacked in the face, with the market showing upward trend as long as charts point from bottom left to top right.
The S&P 500 is trading within a range since early May, and the key question is what will move the market needle, with geopolitical risks and crude oil prices influencing sentiment. The market appears to be showing signs of weakening momentum in crude oil prices, with negative divergence emerging in the RSI, suggesting the downtrend may be losing steam, while bonds are attempting to break higher, implying lower yields and potential inflation resolution, though stocks are not showing strong positive reaction. The creator's thesis is that the stock market's inability to break out, despite positive developments in chip makers, strong results from Micron, and diverging trends in gold and crude oil, suggests that the wartime narrative is giving way to a new macro environment. The creator is maintaining a long bias in bonds, specifically holding short call verticals in stocks and being long on TLT and IEF, while watching gold and crude oil for potential economic catalysts. The creator is looking for a cyclical risk trade with bonds potentially moving higher, and gold might have a tradeable bottom, while crude oil is worth watching for inflationary impetus.
Five is doing remarkably well on a day like this, and ALB has become like old faithful with 10 or 11 red bars in a row, moving in the right direction.
The creator believes the market is in an uptrend, with specific assets like DIA showing potential for a lifetime high close and an uptrend since March 30th. The precious metals market is seen as bearish, with gold and silver showing signs of continued downward movement, and XME being a better bearish bet than GDX. Additionally, STRC and MSTR are considered to be rallying due to oversold conditions and a slight dividend increase, while AMAT and SPX are showing signs of recovery and potential reversal. Retail stocks like KSS, LAR, COST, and BH are being shorted due to completed topping patterns and bearish signals.
The creator has a portfolio with lots of little shorts as well as a few long put positions, and is observing the market's recovery from a recent downturn. SpaceX has found a happy equilibrium after initial volatility, and the market is watching for potential price movements that could affect other big IPOs, while the creator maintains a key position in SMH through long January puts. We're in a diamond pattern that's potentially topping, and we need to get below Friday's lows and ultimately below the lows seen on June 11. As long as we can stay below that gap in ES, the bears will be okay. The creator is encouraged by a breakout but notes that the rally lasted only 22 minutes and that previous highs have been rejected with selling occurring after hitting those highs.
The creator believes that BTC has repeatedly rejected moves below 60,000 on the 60-minute chart and hasn't gained traction, suggesting the next move should be higher as it's accumulating short interest without anyone getting paid. Additionally, the creator is bullish on the markets and believes there will be an upside move, particularly in E-minis, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell. Some names like IBM, Google, and Microsoft are seen as having staying power due to viable businesses before the AI boom, while others like Dell and IBM may be part of the AI boom but lack long-term viability. The creator also notes that the Russell is the only one among the four major indices that's not showing strong movement.
The US dollar is being helped by global rate divergence, and the market is backing away from a full ECB rate hike by year-end, which supports a bullish outlook on the dollar.
The creator is setting up a long delta trade in the E-minis, specifically looking at SPX, with the intention of selling an iron condor for 200 bucks risking 300 bucks, and using the four-day cycle to take advantage of sector rotation. The market is showing signs of rotation out of hardware stocks into software stocks like Microsoft, which is seen as a stable, long-term holding with potential for continued upside. The sector rotation will lend a more balanced trading range in the E-minis versus the Nasdaq, and an iron condor for the 4-day cycle could benefit from a big crush and implied volatility before the jobs report.
The creator is generally bullish, particularly on AI names like Micron and SanDisk, and on Microsoft as a Mag 7 stock, with a belief in rotation out of hardware stocks into sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. The market is seen as potentially moving in a balanced range due to sector rotation, with E-minis offering more flexibility than equity options. A long-term position trade is favored with a high probability setup, especially in MSTR and BTC, while also considering a potential move around the upcoming jobs report and earnings.
The creator notes that SpaceX (SPX) trading is highly volatile, with a rapid fade in momentum and significant options activity, suggesting a period of price discovery and market adjustment. Additionally, the creator observes a recently IPO'd stock showing cooling in price and trading volumes, with activity concentrated in the early morning and close. The creator also highlights that SPX options have become very liquid very quickly, comparable to more established underlays like Oracle, Coinbase, and CRM, and potentially more liquid going forward as market confidence increases. Furthermore, SpaceX is showing high volatility with big sell-offs and run-ups, but options liquidity is improving and becoming as liquid as other major names like Coinbase, making it more tradeable although price volatility remains significant.