The market is at lifetime highs with sustained momentum, particularly in equities like ES and SPY, though the rally appears to lack clear catalysts, suggesting structural momentum. China's FXI is seen as benefiting from relative underperformance compared to surging US stocks. Gold and silver ETFs, including GLD, have reversed from trend lines, with miners like XME and GDX showing short-term bearish momentum, particularly XME versus GTX. Certain stocks like Workday, Alcoa, and Double AI are showing topping patterns after rallies, while United Health Group and CVNA have broken lifetime trend lines, suggesting potential for further downside. Bitcoin and related assets are viewed as vulnerable below $60,000, with a potential for significant downside if breached. The market as a whole is described as expensive, with even bullish chart patterns failing, indicating a high-priced environment where gains are quickly undone. The creator emphasizes the importance of adjusting charts for dividends to avoid misleading price movements.
MSTR has breached the 104.17 level, completing a very well-formed head and shoulders pattern, according to the creator.
The inflation story is fundamentally a supply and commodities-driven phenomenon, not demand-led; unresolved supply issues could lead to abrupt inflationary spikes, as evidenced by diesel and crack spreads. The US maintains its global economic dominance through the dollar’s reserve currency status, enabling unlimited money printing, though excessive monetization risks undermining that status and creating intentional, structural inflation. This dollar dominance is under geopolitical strain, particularly through efforts by China and Russia to bypass dollar-based trade, which may only be resolved through force—especially concerning strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are currently mispricing inflation risk by focusing on core data while structural commodity inflation looms, with the long end of the yield curve signaling that the Fed’s efforts to suppress long-term yields amount to de facto QE. The market’s current strength is attributed to temporary, politically driven forces, including administration policy announcements and capital gains tax proposals, which are intended to boost asset prices ahead of the midterm elections. However, post-midterm, structural risks—including supply chain disruptions, inflation dynamics, and reduced supportive flows—could trigger a 20–30% market decline. Despite this, the market is experiencing sideways V compression during OPEX, with the long end of volatility rising, suggesting favorable conditions for long calendar volatility positions. The administration is actively managing markets through policy, AI models, and Treasury/Fed coordination, but may allow volatility to rise post-election to reset positioning. Meanwhile, index-level flows are strong, but momentum in the Momo space is weak, creating a cap on price action. The long end of volatility is rising, and implied volatility remains cheap, presenting a favorable risk-reward opportunity for long-dated volatility positions, especially after the compressed period.
CPI confirmed payrolls relief, with headline CPI at 0.1% m-o-m and core CPI steady at 2.5% y-o-y, keeping the post-payroll trade intact and maintaining market uncertainty around a September Fed hike. Equities can live with Brent below 90 and WTI in the 80s, though any higher becomes a different conversation.
Micron fundamentals are still spectacular in the short term, but there is no automatic reward for holding the sector. The market is pricing in a longer-term data-driven demand for memory, with HBM3e and HBM4 sold out through 2027 and no meaningful supply expected until at least 2028, creating a sustained shortage. This supports a long bias on Micron and SK Highix, particularly for the September calls, which reflect a longer-term position build attempt on whether the US-listed SKH story can continue developing despite ADR pressures. A bounce is expected, especially given the 31% decline from its high, but the timing and continuation of momentum remain critical.
Nvidia is at a potential turning point after multiple tech and chip stocks reported earnings with wild moves, and the market is uncertain whether this quarter will break out of its implied range. The market shows little skew at current levels, but by December 2026, there is a 40-point implied move with 43% implied volatility, suggesting a higher probability of reaching strike levels like 260–270, especially considering the at-the-money call premium and dividend. The creator is analyzing the probability distribution around Nvidia's earnings announcement, noting that the market is not pricing in the earnings move, and evaluating the likelihood of the stock reaching certain strike prices by year-end based on implied volatility and historical move expectations.
We broke out of a trend line coming, according to the creator.
The market is trading in a range around 7740, with the S&P 500 and other indices showing mixed signals. The everything bubble has persisted since 2008, with recent momentum beginning April 1, 2025. China's FXI has shown a tendency to top and drop, with a failed rally following the Trump Xi summit and a recent correction, though it has recovered some losses. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are viewed as long-term outperformers versus equities, with gold emerging from a cup with handle pattern in March 2024 and reaching a peak of $5,586.20 before correcting. Ratio charts of equity indices versus precious metals show geometric similarities across time, suggesting potential inflection points. Bitcoin is described as a speculative asset with historical growth despite limited real-world utility. SpaceX and related stocks have shown a recent rally followed by a reversal, while bonds like TLT remain in a long-term downtrend despite short-term rebounds. The 15-year fixed rate mortgage has broken out of a prior topping pattern, and SPY remains bullishly configured but shows signs of fatigue.
The entire remaining upside to Wall Street's year-end target is smaller than one month of ordinary volatility, according to Tom Lee.
The market is drifting due to inaction ahead of the CPI release, with no clear catalysts driving movement despite recent new lifetime highs, according to the creator.
The market could be propped up until the midterms, but if the current administration performs poorly, there could be a sudden shift to aggressively selling off markets between election day and the swearing-in in January, according to the creator.
The market is in a state of complacency, drifting with minimal movement as participants wait for the CPI release to provide direction. The NQ is in a gentle downtrend with a series of lower highs, having stalled beneath a resistance level, and could be at an inflection point for the next move. The market is being propped up due to the importance of the midterms, and the period between election day and the swearing-in could see a sharp shift in sentiment, potentially leading to a market sell-off if the outcome is unfavorable. Rocket Lab and AS Space Mobile were short positions due to the impact of SpaceX's IPO and subsequent poor performance, which cooled enthusiasm for these space-related proxies. Meta has been climbing steadily since the post-earnings wipeout, and the price gap coming up in about $15 is an important feature to watch, potentially signaling a bearish reversal if approached.
Oil is back near the pain zone again, with physical stress visible in Hormuz traffic and supply disruptions, but crude in the low 80s and high 70s is manageable for equities; however, Brent at 90 or 100 could feed into inflation expectations and impact the bond market. Analysts are expecting 2.6 billion in Q2 revenue for Corewave, but heavy capex depreciation and interest costs remain central to the story, while investors are focused on server demand, margins, and working capital for Super Micro amid a volatile period.
Traders are positioning for a potential rebound in MRVL ahead of its earnings report, with the stock viewed as central to the AI infrastructure buildout due to its dominance in custom ASIC design, strong revenue growth projections, and upcoming catalysts including new AI memory products, the India buildout, and key earnings reports. The September 4th 250 call is considered more viable than earlier calls due to a 24% implied move, while the August 27th earnings report is seen as a pivotal event, with the market pricing in a 35% growth guide and a focus on post-earnings momentum.
The creator expresses a deep personal passion for charting, emphasizing that charts represent the purest reflection of supply and demand, independent of external noise. They favor their own charting platform, Slope Charts, for its flexibility in displaying complex data across markets. The creator observes that emerging markets (EM) may have topped out, with a key resistance level forming that could be breached within the next month. The US dollar has shown a sustained upward move against the yen, breaking above a right triangle pattern, though the long-term trajectory remains uncertain. The Japanese yen is viewed as bearish, and the US Treasury bond market is in a seven-year bear market, suggesting higher interest rates and lower bond valuations ahead. A ratio chart of US equities versus precious metals shows an exceptionally bearish trend, indicating long-term outperformance potential for gold and silver. Despite short-term bearishness, the creator is long-term bullish on precious metals, with a desire to buy on pullbacks. Crude oil is supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. QQQ and SMH are in downtrends with lower highs, and SMH shows a diamond top pattern, suggesting continued bearish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern has formed in a group of stocks including SpaceX and related IPOs, with potential for further downside if key lows are breached. SpaceX has only recovered to near its IPO price, and VCX, which tracks interest in private companies, reflects ongoing disinterest in new IPOs. The creator notes that SPY may repenetrate a prior rectangle, which could signal a shift in sentiment.
The VIX exhibits a Friday-to-Monday divergence due to its calculation method, which excludes weekend days on Friday and re-includes them on Monday, leading to a misleading representation of market volatility. This effect is not reflective of actual market conditions but rather a structural artifact of the index's pricing mechanism. The week and a half before VIX expiration is considered a favorable period for shorting VIX due to V compression, though this can also lead to sharp moves into OPEX due to dealer positioning and tail risk activation. Index-level compression can drive correlation breakdowns and single-stock outperformance, creating opportunities to be broadly short VIX at the index level. Meanwhile, the long end of the Treasury curve is being supported by yen intervention, which functions as a form of QE, with Japan preparing facilities to manage rising yields. Negative real rates, driven by holding long-end yields down while inflation rises, may trigger an inflationary spiral, particularly in the presence of supply shocks. The conflict in Hormuz is framed as a strategic battle between China and the US over the dollar’s exorbitant privilege and commodity pricing in dollars. Gold, silver, oil, and the yen are seen as macro drivers that may become more prominent as markets shift away from tech earnings and free cash flow narratives. The administration is acting with strategic intent, with expectations of large-scale government intervention post-midterm, potentially reshaping market structure in ways reminiscent of the 1960s, 1970s, or 1930s.
The market is at a perilous point for surviving bears, with resistance anchored to the Wednesday peak, and the market showing signs of becoming a stock pickers market with reduced correlation. The semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been in a broadening but descending pattern, stalling after a rally from a low on a previous Wednesday, with yellow resistance acting as a key level. SMH is concentrated in a handful of names, with Nvidia being a major driver; gold is showing signs of breaking out of a lull and could see more upside movement. Precious metals are expected to outperform equities, with gold and silver having definite upside possibilities due to inflation and the declining value of fiat currencies. Meta has been forming a series of lower highs over the past year, indicating a clear downtrend, and the price gap at the current level represents a compelling resistance that makes shorting more appealing as the stock approaches it.
When silver reached the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the creator took some profit around there, and the pullback hit a trend line, after which the move resumed.
The VIX can stay elevated much longer than people expect, and it shouldn't be used as a precise signal for market bottoms or crash timing, according to the creator.
Caterpillar is tied to the AI hyperscaling effort and peaked on June 30, starting a grinding descent lower contemporaneous with the drop in South Korea's semiconductors, memory chips, and the broader hyperscaling sector.
Microsoft has had a sensational recovery in the past several months and is nearing a mildly important resistance level, while Meta opened weak after earnings but rebounded before stalling near a red bar peak with significant overhead supply. Apple's strong report paradoxically sent it lower after reaching a lifetime high on July 29th, followed by a 10% pullback; Amazon and Palanteer both reached lifetime highs post-earnings with strong momentum, while Caterpillar peaked on June 30th and has since declined, though its recent earnings were initially well received. AMD is in a potentially very strong topping pattern with minor resistance along a dash red line and major support at a base; if it breaks that level, it could complete the pattern and send the price down to close a price gap. Shopify has a significant price gap from January that is now nearly sealed, creating a key resistance level. SanDisk has formed an exceedingly clear top at a price gap around 1345, with a very handsome topping pattern, making it an appealing short. WDC is also showing signs of a strong topping pattern. Nvidia has a well-formed topping pattern and has broken an ascending channel and a dash red line, signaling a bearish reversal.
The Federal Reserve chair, while influential, operates within a committee structure and does not have unilateral control over monetary policy, which can lead to more stable outcomes than if the chair were acting alone. This structure reflects the collective decision-making process within the Federal Reserve, where the chair's influence is moderated by the broader committee.
The market's reaction to the SpaceX lockup break was contrary to expectations, with the stock rising instead of breaking, indicating a failed short squeeze and a potential shift in sentiment. This is not just a weekly squeeze setup, but a broader expectation that the market may develop a new understanding of where SpaceX should be trading over the next weeks and months, potentially at a cheap entry point. Tesla is also benefiting from a sympathy momentum trade spillover from SpaceX's rebound, given Tesla's 36% decline from its December high and the broader Musk ecosystem potentially catching a tailwind. Additionally, the September NASDAQ 100 rebalance could create a squeeze situation due to passive buying, with downstream names like Tesla potentially impacted.
The jobs report came in much weaker than expected, with a loss of 23,000 jobs instead of a projected gain of 85,000, leading to a broad market rally, though bond prices only rose slightly. Equity markets are experiencing a money shower starting last Wednesday afternoon, and if there's follow-through buying, we could blast above Wednesday's peak, with bulls continuing to trample. The release of SpaceX shares is paradoxically expected to cause a rally, as the price has already baked in the sell pressure, insiders have no interest in selling, and the stock has found a solid base after hitting lifetime lows. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have had strong rallies but may be nearing exhaustion, with GLD just kissing the bottom of a right triangle pattern and SLV approaching the top of a rectangle base; miners (GDX) are up significantly but show a murky pattern. Microsoft has had a strong rally from 350 to around 500, but the easy part of the move may be done, and consolidation is expected. Meta has shown a clear top with multiple lower highs and is now peaking, while Apple remains strong despite a recent drop, and Amazon is performing well overall. Amazon and Palanteer are in bull mode with strong momentum; Caterpillar's earnings were rendered moot after breaking below minor support; AMD shows signs of a potential topping pattern; Shopify's gap remains a bearish consideration. SanDisk shows a nice looking topping pattern, and WDCI was reentered short after a prior cover, indicating bearish sentiment on both.
The NASDAQ may have completed several months of consolidation and is beginning to break out, potentially forming a bullish falling wedge, with a breakout, pullback, and continuation higher expected; the market is also seen as holding key technical levels, with the expectation of a return to highs near 31,000 in the U6 cycle, supported by momentum from MAG 7 and semiconductor names breaking downtrends.
The stock is hammering out an impressive bottom after a series of counterintuitive moves, including a rally following weak earnings, suggesting that extreme bearish sentiment can precede a reversal. SpaceX is showing signs of a meaningful bottom in the short term, which may support future big IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic. The bond market bull run ended in March 2020, and since then, markets have been grinding lower, with recent attempts to rally failing to sustain momentum, showing a pattern of lower highs in both ES and INQ. Precious metals have had a strong rally, but there is significant overhead supply and failed breakouts, suggesting the easy part of the move may be over. Nebius is showing a reversal top, and if it can fall three days during the current rally, that’s interesting from a short perspective; Segate has a bearish engulfing pattern and is showing weakness with each successive break. The market is experiencing a classic rotation between software and hardware, with ES and NQ showing a tennis match between Bulls and Bears, and the bond rally post-jobs data has largely disappeared. Catching a bid here, but Jem Carson is coming on the other side of this break.
I actually have a position all the way out in the 533-day cycle. I've got a Super Bowl on here. I sold a put to buy a 300 strike call and I did that for a $300.50 credit.
The stock dropped 11% after earnings despite strong results, but a large options trade suggests the market isn't worried about the guidance gap. The January call is a larger position and carries most of the risk and most of the conviction, based on the assumption that the company's guidance is conservative relative to its actual execution, with a pattern of beating guidance consistently. The company's strong committed revenue base, long-term agreements, and supply constraints create a favorable setup into the upcoming investor day, with potential for upside if management reinforces durability and pricing floors.
SpaceX is trading near lifetime lows with a large portion of its public float becoming eligible for trading, and the options market is pricing in high implied volatility, raising questions about whether this represents a generational entry opportunity or a stock that can't be defended on a short-term basis.
SpaceX is trading near lifetime lows with a significant increase in public float, creating potential for higher volume and possible buying opportunity despite widespread losses and high implied volatility. The stock is trading at a 50% discount to its IPO price of 150, similar to Meta's post-IPO low, which became one of the best buys, and a similar scenario could play out here. The market's risk perception is to the upside, as evidenced by call skew and high premium for out-of-the-money calls relative to puts. The near-term IPO failure does not reflect the company's long-term ability to generate returns, and the creator believes SpaceX will see a higher stock price eventually.
Michael Bur is short seven names, six of which are working, and the seventh, Nvidia, is the only one losing money despite being the most valuable company in the world or near Apple.
The market was rangebound through May, June, and July, finally breaking out with an explosive move higher. Despite signs of overextension and potential retracement, the overall sentiment remains bullish, with the creator noting that even a significant pullback would still leave the market in a bullish configuration. Precious metals are seeing a transitory rally, viewed as a long-term opportunity, while specific sectors like energy show bearish patterns and are considered unattractive. Semiconductor stocks remain in a range-bound topping pattern, requiring a break below last Wednesday’s low to confirm a reversal. A large share unlock for an unnamed stock could trigger selling or reveal long-term conviction, and the market’s bullish setup is supported by a shooting star pattern in ES, though a failed breakout could change that.
Crude oil remains under residual risk premium due to ongoing Red Sea tensions, but a genuine reopening of the Hormuz could ease inflation and bond market pressure, supporting equities. The broader setup is still constructive here, with Jolts cooling on openings, hiring improving, and layoffs staying stable, indicating a labor market that is moderating without deteriorating.
The structural reason for the rotation and ongoing overhang is massive call positioning and dealers being massively short at the momentum level, which remains in place, according to the creator.
The S&P 500 has broken above a multi-month range that was in place since early May, releasing pent-up energy and creating a new highs tend to beget new highs dynamic, which undermines the bearish perspective. Crude oil may be heading toward post-war lows given the current weakness, reminiscent of the rapid collapse after the start of the first Gulf War in January 1991 when markets anticipated a quick end to conflict. The market is in a tug-of-war between software and hardware, with AMD showing strength pre-earnings and SMH remaining rangebound, making it a key watch ahead of major earnings. The market has moved past a descending trend line and is showing some strength, but the upcoming reaction to earnings data will be critical in shaping sentiment, particularly around companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and the broader hyperscaling industry. The market narrative around SpaceX is similar to Tesla's past performance, where a slightly better-than-expected result could drive a significant move higher despite ongoing losses.
AI software with visible revenue conversion is getting paid, while AI infrastructure with unclear payback is still being questioned, emphasizing proof of work over proof of more work needed; AI results are the key test: companies must demonstrate they can meet their spending ambitions with real revenue, particularly from profitable lines like Starlink, to justify their AI and expansion costs.
Oil's collapse is resetting positioning at the start of August, with OPEC Plus raising production and geopolitical tensions easing, while macro data like ISM and durable goods will test the resilience of growth amid energy volatility and uneven housing. Investors are focusing on commercial revenue margins, deal revenue, and guidance after strong recent performance, while assessing whether platforms can convert rapid growth into durable returns before spending overwhelms the story.
As interest rates start to climb, people can't afford to buy houses, which could cause real estate ETFs to drop. The creator is making a cheap bearish bet on IYR using a put spread, buying 106 puts and selling 105 puts, expecting the spread to grow from 47 cents to 81 cents due to intrinsic value as the underlying sits near 105.
Informational only — tastylive’s view, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. Levels and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.