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Someone Bet 29 Million on a Stock Up 500%
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:05LIT· ticker
Lumentum — 7x gain, $1,050, AI bottleneck
- 7x gain from $145 to $1,050
- 106 DTE call 1150 strike for $28.8M
- Break even at $1,289.78
- IV 76% at purchase
- 21% above current price
1:54GOOGL· ticker
Alphabet — 4-month losing streak, $128.97
- 4-month losing streak since 2015
- December 18375 call for $4.62M
- Break even at $387.87
- 34% IV
- 14% above current price
3:43LIT· ticker
Lumentum — AI bottleneck, 800G/1.6T modules
- 800G/1.6T modules at 25-30% of schedule
- Supply shortage for AI infrastructure
- Analyst targets 1200-1400
- Management forecasts $40B in earnings
- Stock trades at 28x sales
5:23GOOGL· ticker
Alphabet — earnings straddling, $357.97
- October 23rd 350 calls for $2.11M
- 22 DTE, 31% IV
- Break even at $357.97
- Earnings not due for weeks
- December 18th calls have 78 DTE
7:06GOOGL· ticker
Alphabet — free cash flow negative, $5.9B
- Free cash flow negative at $5.9B
- Capex doubled to $44.9B
- Buybacks suspended
- Cloud revenue grew 82% to $24.8B
- Q2 revenue grew 24% to $119.8B
7:07lesson
Signal vs. Noise — momentum vs. stagnation
- Momentum trader pays $28.8M for upside
- Google call buyer puts in $4.62M
- Momentum has supply shortage and analyst chase
- Google has topline growth but stagnant chart
- Signal is size and belief in buildouts
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