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Dangerous Fall Incoming? Cem Karsan Breaks Down the Options Flows

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Breakdown

0:05lesson

Summer flows & dispersion

  • Summer volumes cut in half
  • Structural flows double impact
  • Index compression drives dispersion
  • Macro not driving record dispersion
1:46lesson

Options flows & compression

  • Index compression = market making
  • Idiosyncratic risk persists
  • Correlation breakdown from pinned index
  • 2017 dispersion spike from iron condors
3:42lesson

Momentum trade dynamics

  • Momentum underperformed post-OPEX
  • VA charm flows reverse
  • Call skew & implied volatility
  • Decaying V triggers selling
5:37VIX· ticker

VIX trade & expansion

  • VIX trend higher in 2-3 weeks
  • Buy 45/60/90-day V
  • December/January V expansion
  • Post-election V secular trend
7:17V· ticker

V expansion & flows

  • V expansion ahead of August OPEX
  • Structural compression amplifies risk
  • Funding stress clues in June
  • Short skew at end of year
9:17crude oil· ticker

Crude oil backwardation

  • Crude oil backwardation at 5-point
  • Back contracts lifted aggressively
  • Pricing not enough supply
  • Acceleration expected 6-9 months
11:18US dollar· ticker

Dollar exorbitant privilege

  • Dollar's exorbitant privilege
  • Sovereign wealth funds building
  • China's commodity inroads
  • Petro-dollar as strategic moat
13:01Intel· ticker

Government equity stakes

  • US government buying equities
  • 5%+ ownership target
  • Socialism with American characteristics
  • Industrial policy alignment
14:39crude oil· ticker

Oil rotation & macro

  • Crude oil backwardation acceleration
  • Rotation into energy names
  • Strait of Hormuz control
  • China's opposing strategy
16:24lesson

Fall volatility & administration

  • Volatility expansion post-midterms
  • Administration's plate-spinning
  • Third leg of volatility stool
  • Wild ride into November

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