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Dangerous Fall Incoming? Cem Karsan Breaks Down the Options Flows
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:05lesson
Summer flows & dispersion
- Summer volumes cut in half
- Structural flows double impact
- Index compression drives dispersion
- Macro not driving record dispersion
1:46lesson
Options flows & compression
- Index compression = market making
- Idiosyncratic risk persists
- Correlation breakdown from pinned index
- 2017 dispersion spike from iron condors
3:42lesson
Momentum trade dynamics
- Momentum underperformed post-OPEX
- VA charm flows reverse
- Call skew & implied volatility
- Decaying V triggers selling
5:37VIX· ticker
VIX trade & expansion
- VIX trend higher in 2-3 weeks
- Buy 45/60/90-day V
- December/January V expansion
- Post-election V secular trend
7:17V· ticker
V expansion & flows
- V expansion ahead of August OPEX
- Structural compression amplifies risk
- Funding stress clues in June
- Short skew at end of year
9:17crude oil· ticker
Crude oil backwardation
- Crude oil backwardation at 5-point
- Back contracts lifted aggressively
- Pricing not enough supply
- Acceleration expected 6-9 months
11:18US dollar· ticker
Dollar exorbitant privilege
- Dollar's exorbitant privilege
- Sovereign wealth funds building
- China's commodity inroads
- Petro-dollar as strategic moat
13:01Intel· ticker
Government equity stakes
- US government buying equities
- 5%+ ownership target
- Socialism with American characteristics
- Industrial policy alignment
14:39crude oil· ticker
Oil rotation & macro
- Crude oil backwardation acceleration
- Rotation into energy names
- Strait of Hormuz control
- China's opposing strategy
16:24lesson
Fall volatility & administration
- Volatility expansion post-midterms
- Administration's plate-spinning
- Third leg of volatility stool
- Wild ride into November
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