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AI Frenzy Saved the Stock Market From the Iran War. Now It Looks Like the Problem, Says Ilya Spivak
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:03lesson
S&P 500 — choppy consolidation, AI sector weakness
- Tech sector under pressure
- Margin calls drive lower
- AI build-out names priced in since March
- Range-bound consolidation since mid-May
2:39crude oil· ticker
Crude oil — support tested, volatility
- Testing low 80s support
- Volatility from Hormuz tensions
- Weakness persists without conviction
5:26Treasury note· ticker
Treasury note — inflation data impact
- News reflected in bond yields
- CPI/PPI data drives yield swings
- Warsh's hawkish comments pressure bonds
7:57gold· ticker
Gold — yield-driven weakness
- Yield rise undermines gold appeal
- Dollar strength pressures gold
- Range-bound with no conviction
10:31lesson
Retail sales — price impulse vs. demand
- 0.2% rise unadjusted for inflation
- Gasoline sales drop 5%
- Food/beverage decline raises flags
13:05lesson
Inflation dynamics — energy vs. services
- Energy decline masks service weakness
- Core services contraction concerns
- AI-driven inflation vs. consumer squeeze
15:56bonds· ticker
Bonds — hawkish vs. dovish shifts
- CPI/PPI data drives yield spikes
- Warsh's comments pressure bond prices
- Market waits for next catalyst
18:45lesson
GDP drivers — investment vs. consumption
- Investment drives 10% GDP growth
- Consumption weakens consumer demand
- Recession risk from imbalance
21:37lesson
PMI surveys — manufacturing vs. services
- Manufacturing growth above 50
- Services contraction below 50
- AI tailwinds vs. service sector weakness
24:10dollar· ticker
Dollar — range-bound with no conviction
- Testing July 2023 resistance
- Soggy movement in uptrend
- Energy shocks influence volatility
26:58Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin — long bias on yield shifts
- Responsive to liquidity changes
- Short volatility with bearish bias
- Long bonds, silver, oil
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