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Wall Street’s Best Known Bull Says It’s Almost Over, Here’s What the Options Think
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:01lesson
Options math check: downside vs rally probabilities
- Sell-off in final innings, 6% drop room
- S&P 500 target 8,000 by year end
- 7,300 is 3.3% below current level
- 7,100 requires 6% decline
- Options compare probability of finishing below/above levels
2:25lesson
Options straddle analysis for S&P 500
- Straddle pricing 7500 as baseline
- 7150 downside, 7850 upside
- Delta = percent chance in the money
- Touch = percent chance of touching level
- 7100: 21% finish in the money, 47% touch
4:19lesson
Market skew and downside probability
- Skew favors downside over upside
- 7,300: 32% finish in the money, 68% touch
- 8,000: 9% finish in the money, 18% touch
- Market pricing downside first, then upside
- Skew reflects recent weakness
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