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Ed Yardeni's S&P 10,000 Call Is Just 8% a Year
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 forecast
- Yardeni cut S&P 500 target from 8400 to 7900
- Raised bearish odds to 30%
- 10,000 by 2029 remains unchanged
- S&P at 7800, 28% to 10,000
- Annualized gain of ~8% over 3 years
2:27lesson
Options Math Check analysis
- Options math check examines forecast
- Implied volatility at 22%
- Expected move formula: spot × volatility × sqrt(time)
- 3-year expected move ~3,000 points
- Range: 4,800 to 10,800
4:13lesson
Normality of Yardeni's forecast
- 2,200 points to 10,000
- Annualized 8% gain
- 624 points per year
- By 7,900, only 100 points left
- Forecast is normal, not extreme
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