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Jamie Dimon Won't Buy Stocks or Bonds Here. The Options Tape Agrees
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Dimon's market risk math
- Dimon argues stock returns are only 30 cents more than bonds
- Earnings $4.90 vs Treasury $4.60
- High rates stall stocks, low rates drive demand
2:04ZB· ticker
2-year Treasury at 109.10
- ZB hits 109.10, 2-year low since 2023
- Notes at 108.00, 1.5-year low
- SPX still near 4,300 despite sell-off
4:16ZN· ticker
10-year Treasury at 108.00
- ZN hits 108.00, 2-year low since 2025
- SPX remains within 300 of 4,300
- IBM gaps down 100 points
6:06GOOGL· ticker
Google down 6.5%
- GOOGL gaps down to 4.23T cap
- Big gap down since April
- Tech stocks face AI cost concerns
7:59lesson
Options skew and volatility
- SPX 7,200 put trades at $2,400
- 7,600 call trades at $600
- Put skew indicates downside risk
9:48SPX· ticker
SPX at 7,400 with skew
- Put skew shows 20% downside probability
- VIX jumps to 20 from mid-teens
- Earnings volatility priced at 150 points
9:49lesson
VIX futures and backwardation
- VIX futures flat at 60 cents
- Backwardation signals potential sell-off
- Earnings risk priced at 150 points
9:50lesson
Market risk pricing
- Put skew shows 9% upside probability
- 20% downside probability priced in
- Velocity risk to the downside
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