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Should the Stock Market Be Much Higher if the US-Iran Oil Shock is Really Over? Ilya Spivak Says...
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Chapters11 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Market Rebound and Macro Risk
- S&P 500 grinding range
- Geopolitical risk in Iran
- Crude oil hovering near war start level
2:48lesson
Oil Price Divergence and Bond Trends
- Crude oil showing negative divergence
- Bonds breaking higher
- Inflation expectations easing
5:13lesson
Stock Market Underperformance
- Chip makers investing 500B USD
- Micron results scorching
- Stocks not surging despite good news
7:52lesson
Upcoming Economic Data and Central Bank Speeches
- China PMI flatline expected
- US job openings down to 7.3M
- Eurozone inflation easing from 3.2% to 3%
10:23lesson
ISM Manufacturing Data and Economic Growth
- ISM manufacturing at 53.7
- Strongest in 4 years
- Service sector anemic
13:24lesson
Consumer Weakness and Wage Inflation
- Average hourly earnings below inflation
- Wages not keeping pace with inflation
- Consumer spending weak
16:07lesson
GDP Growth and Investment Contribution
- GDP grew 2.1%
- Business investment up 10%
- Consumer contribution near zero
18:54lesson
Inflation from Growth Mix
- Core services prices rising
- Inflation from narrow growth engine
- Business investment powering manufacturing
21:51lesson
Global Economic Contractions
- Eurozone in contraction
- UK and Australia facing pain
- US service sector near standstill
24:25lesson
Fed Policy Shifts and Rate Expectations
- Markets expect one Fed hike
- No more tightening or cuts
- Rate hike by October
26:55lesson
Market Exposure and Risk Management
- Short call verticals in stocks
- Long bonds with TLT and IEF
- Watching gold and crude oil
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