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Should the Stock Market Be Much Higher if the US-Iran Oil Shock is Really Over? Ilya Spivak Says...

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Chapters11 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:11lesson

Market Rebound and Macro Risk

  • S&P 500 grinding range
  • Geopolitical risk in Iran
  • Crude oil hovering near war start level
2:48lesson

Oil Price Divergence and Bond Trends

  • Crude oil showing negative divergence
  • Bonds breaking higher
  • Inflation expectations easing
5:13lesson

Stock Market Underperformance

  • Chip makers investing 500B USD
  • Micron results scorching
  • Stocks not surging despite good news
7:52lesson

Upcoming Economic Data and Central Bank Speeches

  • China PMI flatline expected
  • US job openings down to 7.3M
  • Eurozone inflation easing from 3.2% to 3%
10:23lesson

ISM Manufacturing Data and Economic Growth

  • ISM manufacturing at 53.7
  • Strongest in 4 years
  • Service sector anemic
13:24lesson

Consumer Weakness and Wage Inflation

  • Average hourly earnings below inflation
  • Wages not keeping pace with inflation
  • Consumer spending weak
16:07lesson

GDP Growth and Investment Contribution

  • GDP grew 2.1%
  • Business investment up 10%
  • Consumer contribution near zero
18:54lesson

Inflation from Growth Mix

  • Core services prices rising
  • Inflation from narrow growth engine
  • Business investment powering manufacturing
21:51lesson

Global Economic Contractions

  • Eurozone in contraction
  • UK and Australia facing pain
  • US service sector near standstill
24:25lesson

Fed Policy Shifts and Rate Expectations

  • Markets expect one Fed hike
  • No more tightening or cuts
  • Rate hike by October
26:55lesson

Market Exposure and Risk Management

  • Short call verticals in stocks
  • Long bonds with TLT and IEF
  • Watching gold and crude oil

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