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Markets See Four Fed Rate Hikes From Here. Can Warsh Deliver?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:09WTI· ticker
Crude oil pushes higher, testing 105
- Crude oil pushes higher
- Constriction in Middle East feeds market
- Well north of 105 on WTI
- Resistance line approaching 111
2:23Gold· ticker
Gold holds level despite war trade dynamics
- Gold holds level
- War trade dynamics not feeding through
- Gold unattractive in relative terms
- Yields nothing
4:48Dollar· ticker
Dollar struggles to rally against oil and yields
- Dollar struggles to rally
- Oil and yields backdrop
- Can't stick landing
- Euro as liquid stand-in
7:00Euro· ticker
Euro consolidates in same range since mid-August
- Euro consolidates in same range
- Consolidating since mid-August
- Holding levels until Fed speaks
- Potential for anti-dollar narrative
9:09Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin down after Clarity Act fails to pass
- Bitcoin down after Clarity Act fails
- Key support holds
- Rally due to Bessant's comments
- Clarity Act not main driver
11:27Gold· ticker
Gold holds level despite war trade dynamics
- Gold holds level by skin of teeth
- Flirted with breakdown
- War trade dynamics not feeding through
- Market hesitant to commit on rates
11:28Dollar· ticker
Dollar struggles to rally against oil and yields
- Dollar struggles to rally
- Oil and yields backdrop
- Can't stick landing
- Euro as liquid stand-in
11:29Euro· ticker
Euro consolidates in same range since mid-August
- Euro consolidates in same range
- Consolidating since mid-August
- Holding levels until Fed speaks
- Potential for anti-dollar narrative
11:30Bonds· ticker
Bonds consolidate with divergence on top side
- Bonds consolidate with divergence
- Momentum diverging on top side
- Treasury Secretary failed to meet buyback
- Market doubts seriousness
11:31Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin down after Clarity Act fails to pass
- Bitcoin down after Clarity Act fails
- Key support holds
- Rally due to Bessant's comments
- Clarity Act not main driver
11:32S&P· ticker
S&P struggles to find support as it slices through levels
- S&P struggles to find support
- Slicing through levels
- Eyeing lower end of range
- Choppy middle likely to grind
11:33NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ flirting with dangerous territory
- NASDAQ flirting with dangerous territory
- Not breaking bottom of range
- Next level to consider sub 28,000
- Potential for major inflection point
11:34Fed· ticker
Fed rate decision critical for market direction
- Fed rate decision critical
- 94% chance of rate hike
- Market would react if no hike
- Extrapolating four hikes by 2027
11:35Gold· ticker
Gold still longed despite market uncertainty
- Still long gold
- Short US dollar
- Long Bitcoin
- Short stock market in various ways
11:36Silver· ticker
Silver call vertical for debasement trade
- Long silver via call vertical
- Looking for debasement trade
- Macro money for today
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