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How to Price a Prediction Nobody Thinks to Question
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00Brent· ticker
Brent oil at 104, Goldman sees $85
- Brent at 104
- Goldman sees $85
- Rice Ted says north of 140
- S&P near record
- 10-year above 5%
2:05S&P· ticker
S&P near record, 10-year above 5%
- S&P near record
- 10-year above 5%
- Kramer's three bets
- Lower oil, lower rates, higher stocks
4:05SJIM· ticker
SJIM down 15% vs S&P up 25%
- SJIM down 15%
- Elgim up 2.2%
- S&P up 25%
- Fading Kramer lost money
6:04Elgim· ticker
Elgim up 2.2% vs S&P up 25%
- Elgim up 2.2%
- S&P up 25%
- Fading Kramer lost money
- Following Kramer made little
6:05NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ down 120, E-minis down 65
- NASDAQ down 120
- E-minis down 65
- Market selloff
- Volatility crush in crude oil
6:06Crude· ticker
Crude oil at 97, volatility crush
- Crude oil at 97
- Volatility crush
- X contract at 9762
- Probability of 70s in crude
6:07Crude· ticker
Crude oil at 97, 243-day cycle at 77
- Crude oil at 97
- 243-day cycle at 77
- Upside more probable
- 110-120 per barrel range
6:08S&P· ticker
S&P options at 7500, 8500 has 3% probability
- S&P options at 7500
- 8500 has 3% probability
- One standard deviation at 8050
- Put skew to downside
6:09V· ticker
Volatility futures flattening, V at 1905
- Volatility futures flattening
- V at 1905
- X at 1939
- Market selling off aggressively
6:10lesson
Market sentiment and volatility analysis
- Interest rate hike 25 basis points
- Another hike expected
- Market not liking rate hikes
- Volatility flattening
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