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How to Price a Prediction Nobody Thinks to Question

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Chapters10 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00Brent· ticker

Brent oil at 104, Goldman sees $85

  • Brent at 104
  • Goldman sees $85
  • Rice Ted says north of 140
  • S&P near record
  • 10-year above 5%
2:05S&P· ticker

S&P near record, 10-year above 5%

  • S&P near record
  • 10-year above 5%
  • Kramer's three bets
  • Lower oil, lower rates, higher stocks
4:05SJIM· ticker

SJIM down 15% vs S&P up 25%

  • SJIM down 15%
  • Elgim up 2.2%
  • S&P up 25%
  • Fading Kramer lost money
6:04Elgim· ticker

Elgim up 2.2% vs S&P up 25%

  • Elgim up 2.2%
  • S&P up 25%
  • Fading Kramer lost money
  • Following Kramer made little
6:05NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ down 120, E-minis down 65

  • NASDAQ down 120
  • E-minis down 65
  • Market selloff
  • Volatility crush in crude oil
6:06Crude· ticker

Crude oil at 97, volatility crush

  • Crude oil at 97
  • Volatility crush
  • X contract at 9762
  • Probability of 70s in crude
6:07Crude· ticker

Crude oil at 97, 243-day cycle at 77

  • Crude oil at 97
  • 243-day cycle at 77
  • Upside more probable
  • 110-120 per barrel range
6:08S&P· ticker

S&P options at 7500, 8500 has 3% probability

  • S&P options at 7500
  • 8500 has 3% probability
  • One standard deviation at 8050
  • Put skew to downside
6:09V· ticker

Volatility futures flattening, V at 1905

  • Volatility futures flattening
  • V at 1905
  • X at 1939
  • Market selling off aggressively
6:10lesson

Market sentiment and volatility analysis

  • Interest rate hike 25 basis points
  • Another hike expected
  • Market not liking rate hikes
  • Volatility flattening

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