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Tim Knight on Google's Half-Trillion-Dollar Wipeout and Its Zero-Year Return

NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 12:04
Chapters14 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00lesson

Mental stops and position sizing

  • Mental stops are promises to self
  • Set stops to penny level
  • Stopped out immediately
  • Psychological breaking point
  • Multiple positions for resilience
1:51Carvana· ticker

Carvana — resilient, 16% rally

  • Carvana rallied 16%
  • Resilient despite slippage
  • No position held
  • Keep eye on for future
3:45Google· ticker

Google — 12% drop, one-year return

  • Google down 12%
  • One-year return zero
  • Peaked in May
  • Cash flow blown
  • AI as hope
5:29Microsoft· ticker

Microsoft — bearish engulfing pattern

  • Microsoft down 1%
  • Bearish engulfing pattern
  • Surge given up
  • 5-point drop
7:20Forinet· ticker

Forinet — 20% drop, market cap loss

  • Forinet down 20%
  • Lost 1/5 market cap
  • Fighting back
  • No clear pattern
9:08Service Now· ticker

Service Now — 25% drop, wipeout

  • Service Now down 25%
  • Wipeout of gains
  • No clear pattern
  • Time machine wish
11:09Gold· ticker

Gold — psychological level 4,000

  • Gold trying to stay above 4,000
  • Silver breaking down
  • Right triangle pattern
  • New year low
11:10Silver· ticker

Silver — 2% drop, new year low

  • Silver breaking down
  • Right triangle pattern
  • New year low
  • Long-term positioning
11:11SpaceX· ticker

SpaceX — weakening, 140s range

  • SpaceX weakening
  • 140s range
  • Anthropic S1 impact
  • Anticipation of public listing
11:12SMH· ticker

SMH — broken trend line, undecided

  • SMH below broken trend line
  • Clinging to trend line
  • Systems go failed
  • Uncertain outcome
11:13KAC· ticker

KAC — 7% rise, negating topping pattern

  • KAC up 7%
  • Negating topping pattern
  • Microsoft and Google attention
  • Positive effect negated
11:14bonds· ticker

Bonds — grinding, no movement

  • Bonds grinding, no movement
  • PCE and GDP data
  • Interest rate zone
  • ETFs like LQD, HYG, TLT
11:15semis· ticker

Semis — potential U-turn, LQD

  • Semis potential U-turn
  • LQD, HYG, TLT, IEF
  • Big distribution top
  • Rally about to reverse
11:16Amazon· ticker

Amazon — direction needed

  • Amazon needs direction
  • Market focus on tech
  • Bears toast if tech keeps rising

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