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Brent Kochuba Says the Trade That Usually Pins the Market Didn't Show Up
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Market recovery rally and volatility contraction
- Focus on hyperscalers like Oracle, CoreWeave, Meta
- S&P 500 gamma map shows negative gamma
- VSS contraction likely after elections
- Volatility contraction around election outcome
1:40S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 risk pivot at 7600
- Key level at 7600 for stability in rally
- Put sellers and zerod traders may come in
- Negative gamma persists below 7600
- Positive gamma above 7750
3:33S&P 500· ticker
Hero indicator and bullish order flow
- Positive $1.3 billion deltas in S&P 500
- Call buying drives bullish flow
- Equity space shows $130 million positive deltas
- Very light options order flow despite market bounce
5:16VIX· ticker
VIX term structure flattening
- Current VIX term structure is flat
- Flattening signals risk building
- Compare to steep contango in risk-off markets
- Backwardation signals elevated volatility
6:58VIX· ticker
Fixed strike VSS and volatility contraction
- Fixed strike VSS are lower than yesterday
- Not a major contraction in real time
- VSS are higher than Friday's levels
- Still cautious on market rally
8:41S&P 500· ticker
Gamma projection and put wall at 7400
- Negative gamma across all strikes
- Put wall at 7400 with dealer long put strike
- Downside target at 7400 if below 7600
- Call flies for upside protection
10:21S&P 500· ticker
Call buying and bullish positioning
- Big QQQ long call position added
- Socks and Taiwan Semi call spreads added
- Oracle short puts and AMD call spreads
- Bullish positioning despite macro risks
12:07S&P 500· ticker
Volatility landscape and high implied VSS
- High implied VSS across the board
- High options volume suggests wash out
- Wash out and dip buying as warming up
- Hesitant to sell puts due to macro risks
13:53S&P 500· ticker
Volatility based trade and call buying
- Big call buyers in QQQ and single stocks
- IBIT put spread for riskoff sentiment
- Bitcoin puts as downside hedge
- Bitcoin IV rank is low relative to stocks
15:37S&P 500· ticker
Options pricing and implied volatility
- Options are expensive, avoid outright buying
- Focus on call spreads for market rallies
- Avoid selling puts due to macro risks
- VIX term structure contraction as signal
17:26S&P 500· ticker
AMD trade and resistance level at 550
- AMD resistance at 550 with positive gamma
- Implied move of 7.5% to 525
- Call skew is low relative to puts
- Trade idea: sell 550 call and buy next week's
19:05S&P 500· ticker
Options pricing and implied volatility
- Options are expensive, avoid outright buying
- Focus on call spreads for market rallies
- Avoid selling puts due to macro risks
- VIX term structure contraction as signal
20:56AMD· ticker
AMD trade and resistance level at 550
- AMD resistance at 550 with positive gamma
- Implied move of 7.5% to 525
- Call skew is low relative to puts
- Trade idea: sell 550 call and buy next week's
22:35AMD· ticker
AMD trade and resistance level at 550
- AMD resistance at 550 with positive gamma
- Implied move of 7.5% to 525
- Call skew is low relative to puts
- Trade idea: sell 550 call and buy next week's
24:13AMD· ticker
AMD trade and resistance level at 550
- AMD resistance at 550 with positive gamma
- Implied move of 7.5% to 525
- Call skew is low relative to puts
- Trade idea: sell 550 call and buy next week's
25:56Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin puts as downside hedge
- Bitcoin puts are cheap relative to stocks
- Put wall at 7400 for S&P 500
- Bitcoin IV rank is low relative to stocks
- Focus on downside hedges
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