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Google Had Its Worst Day Ever, and Every Analyst Still Says Buy
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00GOOG· ticker
Google — worst day since public, $12k drop
- Google down 12%
- Lost half a trillion in value
- Nvidia had worse day
- Cloud revenue doubled
- Alphabet spent $51.4B on AI
2:06GOOG· ticker
Analysts cut targets, still above current price
- Seven analysts cut targets
- All targets above current price
- UBS at 332, 17% higher
- Average target at 377, 33% higher
4:04GOOG· ticker
Options market reaction to Google's drop
- Implied move of 32 points on puts
- Calls reduced by $10
- Net change of 22 points
- Implied volatility at 32%
5:57GOOG· ticker
Google's historical context and risk assessment
- Annual low of 2026 at 272
- Google still a MAG 7 stock
- Cash flow still positive
- Implied volatility down to 32%
5:58VIX· ticker
VIX and market sentiment
- VIX settling down
- Market could rip higher
- MAG 7 stocks as potential plays
- Google as one of the cheapest
5:59GOOG· ticker
Implied volatility and future price ranges
- 330 is one standard deviation
- 14% chance above 330 in 78 days
- 370 is two standard deviations
- Implied volatility at 32%
6:00GOOG· ticker
Risk assessment and market outlook
- Potential for 50-point move
- Keep risk small
- Strategic positioning
- Avoid portfolio ruin
6:01GOOG· ticker
Market speculation on future price
- 330 or 230 first
- Potential for big move
- Be careful with near-term volatility
- Stay strategic
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