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Stock Market on the Brink: Beware the Signal in Bonds and Gold Prices, Says Ilya Spivak
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:10S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 — range top rejected, consolidation ongoing
- Range top holds after failed rebound
- Lopsided diamond pattern losing potency
- Candle gaps down at weekly open
- Loss of conviction in bullish setup
2:30NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ — congestion breaks, support tested
- Clean break of immediate support layer
- Intraday gap recovery attempt fails
- Momentum favors circumspect outlook
- Range since mid-June remains intact
5:03crude oil· ticker
Crude oil — upside gap fails, geopolitical tensions
- Gaps higher due to US-Iran tensions
- Markets shrug off war narrative
- Intraday gap remains untested
- War trade dynamics not rekindled
7:43lesson
Market behavior vs. war trade expectations
- Gold/bonds don't sell off as expected
- Loss of downside momentum signals shift
- War trade echoes not materializing
- Different dynamics at play
10:22US dollar· ticker
US dollar — support holds, range dynamics
- Holding former resistance-turned-support
- Testing underside of near-term range
- Higher lows/highs give way
- Dollar not rallying convincingly
13:07lesson
Economic data and central bank expectations
- UK/Canada inflation data mixed
- ECB rate hike expectations stable
- Bank of Japan inflation outlook
- Global growth indicators under scrutiny
15:57Bank of Japan· ticker
Bank of Japan — rate hike expectations
- Expectation of rate hikes persists
- Yen at 1980s lows creates friction
- Capital flows unwind short yen positions
- Potential yen rally if inflation rises
18:24lesson
Global growth dynamics and PMI data
- Australia/Japan/Eurozone PMI at standstill
- Services sector weakness dominates
- US growth reliant on investment
- Sustainability concerns for growth model
21:11US economy· ticker
US growth — investment vs. consumption
- First-quarter growth driven by investment
- Consumption contributes minimally
- Inflationary pressures from overcapacity
- Second-quarter growth expected to slow
23:57lesson
Fed policy expectations and market dynamics
- Rate hike expectations remain stable
- Market skepticism about growth sustainability
- Central banks avoid aggressive tightening
- Focus shifts to business cycle turning points
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