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Stock Market on the Brink: Beware the Signal in Bonds and Gold Prices, Says Ilya Spivak

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:10S&P 500· ticker

S&P 500 — range top rejected, consolidation ongoing

  • Range top holds after failed rebound
  • Lopsided diamond pattern losing potency
  • Candle gaps down at weekly open
  • Loss of conviction in bullish setup
2:30NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ — congestion breaks, support tested

  • Clean break of immediate support layer
  • Intraday gap recovery attempt fails
  • Momentum favors circumspect outlook
  • Range since mid-June remains intact
5:03crude oil· ticker

Crude oil — upside gap fails, geopolitical tensions

  • Gaps higher due to US-Iran tensions
  • Markets shrug off war narrative
  • Intraday gap remains untested
  • War trade dynamics not rekindled
7:43lesson

Market behavior vs. war trade expectations

  • Gold/bonds don't sell off as expected
  • Loss of downside momentum signals shift
  • War trade echoes not materializing
  • Different dynamics at play
10:22US dollar· ticker

US dollar — support holds, range dynamics

  • Holding former resistance-turned-support
  • Testing underside of near-term range
  • Higher lows/highs give way
  • Dollar not rallying convincingly
13:07lesson

Economic data and central bank expectations

  • UK/Canada inflation data mixed
  • ECB rate hike expectations stable
  • Bank of Japan inflation outlook
  • Global growth indicators under scrutiny
15:57Bank of Japan· ticker

Bank of Japan — rate hike expectations

  • Expectation of rate hikes persists
  • Yen at 1980s lows creates friction
  • Capital flows unwind short yen positions
  • Potential yen rally if inflation rises
18:24lesson

Global growth dynamics and PMI data

  • Australia/Japan/Eurozone PMI at standstill
  • Services sector weakness dominates
  • US growth reliant on investment
  • Sustainability concerns for growth model
21:11US economy· ticker

US growth — investment vs. consumption

  • First-quarter growth driven by investment
  • Consumption contributes minimally
  • Inflationary pressures from overcapacity
  • Second-quarter growth expected to slow
23:57lesson

Fed policy expectations and market dynamics

  • Rate hike expectations remain stable
  • Market skepticism about growth sustainability
  • Central banks avoid aggressive tightening
  • Focus shifts to business cycle turning points

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