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The Quietest Hour of the Trading Day Is No Longer Quiet
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Intraday S&P volatility analysis
- Compare 2012–2019, 2020–2023, and recent periods
- Focus on intraday S&P swings
- Assess volatility, size, and direction of hourly moves
1:44lesson
Intraday volatility trends
- Recent volatility higher than 2012–2019 but lower than 2020–2023
- U-shape volatility pattern across all time frames
- Morning volatility outpaces closing volatility
3:34lesson
Midday volatility shift
- Most growth in midday window (11:30–12:30)
- Historically quiet time now showing increased volatility
- Potential impact on zero DTE trading
5:10lesson
Large hourly moves
- More common in recent periods compared to 2012–2019
- Morning hours show increased large moves
- Daily highs/lows still mostly set in morning
6:54lesson
Extreme timing changes
- Distribution of daily highs/lows shifted modestly
- Midday (11:30–12:30) now more common for highs/lows
- Open remains most common bucket
8:45lesson
Midday drift trends
- Midday drift becoming more positive
- Swings to the upside strengthening
- Shift in intraday patterns from historical norms
10:28lesson
Summary of S&P volatility changes
- Average one-minute volatility higher than pre-COVID
- Most shift in midday (11:30–12:30) window
- Midday drift to the upside strengthening
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