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Tesla Fell 14% in One Day. Five Years of Data Says That's Still Normal.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00TSLA· ticker
Tesla — 13.82% drop, normal distribution test
- Down 13.82% 51 points
- Stocks follow normal distribution
- Bell curve grades test scores
- Volatility challenges normality
2:29lesson
Analyzing Tesla's price distribution over time
- Daily/5-day/30-day returns histogram
- Outliers at -13.88% (today)
- Normal curve vs. actual data
- Standard deviation vs. implied volatility
5:06lesson
Defined risk trades vs. outlier risks
- Outliers kill short premium strategies
- Consistency beats single-trade luck
- Volatility correlates with outlier frequency
- Defined risk trades mitigate exposure
7:29lesson
Speculative vs. strategic position sizing
- Strangles/iron condors face outlier risks
- Extend expiry for wider dispersion
- Most trades may not profit
- Strategy consistency > single-trade outcomes
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