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The Holiday Edge Everyone Talks About Is Really One Outlier Year
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Holiday premium effect study
- Setting premium works better during holidays
- Study shows similar returns during holidays and normal days
- Historical crashes and moves differ during holidays
- Holiday period defined as November 1st to January 15th
1:59lesson
Holiday vs. normal market environment
- Split time into IVR high and low environments
- Holiday window beats rest of the year in some cases
- IVR plays a role in results
- Use returns and volumes to quantify differences
4:06lesson
Holiday trading volume and participation
- Higher volume during holidays compared to normal days
- People take vacations and rest during holidays
- Trading activity not calm during holidays
- Volume higher when IVR is above 30
6:12lesson
Holiday vs. normal market results
- Holiday windows outperform same setups in high IVR
- 2.8% P&L over buying power during high IVR
- 8% win rate for trades during high IVR
- Same setups yield 0.53% P&L over buying power in normal days
7:59lesson
Holiday season and market uncertainty
- Articles posted on Twitter for further insights
- Holiday season traditionally has uncertainty
- Study provides takeaways for traders
- Articles answer questions and provide opinions
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