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Is the Stock Market Broken? Falling Inflation is Not the Good News it Seems to Be, Says Ilya Spivak
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:03lesson
Inflation data and Fed testimony
- Inflation data out but markets uncertain
- Kevin Warsh's hawkish testimony
- Economic data continues to arrive
- S&P 500 consolidates without clear direction
2:34S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 consolidates in range
- S&P 500 range-bound since mid-May
- Volumes diminishing, momentum flat
- Market seeking direction from war/trade
- Crude oil stalls as oil shock fades
4:58lesson
Bond market and inflation expectations
- Bonds attempt to carve out bottom
- Yields fall after weak CPI but reverse
- Global central banks shift hawkish
- War and oil shocks influence inflation read-through
7:28US dollar· ticker
Dollar weakens after oil shock
- Dollar sogs after CPI spook
- Resisting former resistance level
- Rising trend bounds questioned
- Momentum shifts but direction unclear
10:13PPI· ticker
PPI shows energy-driven decline
- PPI drops 0.3% month-on-month
- Core PCE rises 0.2% vs forecast 0.4%
- Energy component falls 6.4%
- Crude oil decline lags in PPI data
12:51lesson
Fed's inflation concerns and AI
- Kevin Warsh downplays AI inflation
- AI demand may be one-time price spike
- Fed waits to hike amid oil inflation
- Pricing in 23 basis points for 2024 hikes
15:47Retail sales· ticker
Retail sales weakens consumer impact
- Retail sales expected to fall 0.2%
- Gasoline prices lag oil price drops
- Refinery shortages limit refined product
- Consumer spending squeezed by inflation
18:30GDP· ticker
GDP growth driven by AI investment
- First-quarter GDP 2.1% growth
- Investment drives 14% of economy
- Consumer spending slows to 0.9%
- Inflationary growth risks recession
21:16lesson
Global PMI and economic divergence
- Manufacturing growth vs service contraction
- Australia/Eurozone/UK show divergent trends
- AI tailwinds create inflationary pressure
- Consumer sectors face contraction risks
23:42lesson
Market positioning and strategies
- Long Aussie, EUR, and silver
- Short calls on S&P/Nasdaq for downside bias
- Crude oil and TLT call verticals
- Bond market volatility favors duration
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