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Brent Kochuba Says Nothing Has Been Cleared Yet
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Chapters14 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Market volatility and VIX dynamics
- Volatility still coming due
- Biggest VIX move since 1990
- 15th biggest down move in VIX
- V gets bid, markets crash
- V gets smacked, markets rally
1:44lesson
Negative gamma and market instability
- Negative gamma environment
- Volatility expanding
- Puts closed in market rally
- 7,300 area as possible low
- Potential rally into OPEX next week
3:29lesson
Crude oil and macroeconomic uncertainty
- Crash in oil as risk clearing mechanism
- Oil down is good for stocks
- Rates jumping higher
- Uncertainty into FOMC period
- Equity rotation trade dying
5:09lesson
Rotation trade and sector performance
- Rotation trade into lower rate names
- Lower rate trade died on Thursday
- Correlation spiked
- Financials, biotech, energy down
- Rotation trade unwinding
6:56lesson
Gamma positioning and market levels
- Uncertainty shown by red negative gamma
- Targeting 7,300 as potential low
- Negative gamma slope dies at 7,300
- Implied VIX under realized volatility
- Volatility not cheap anymore
8:37lesson
Volatility dynamics and event-driven risks
- Implied VIX under realized volatility
- Options no longer cheap
- Events like Nvidia earnings and FOMC
- Uncertainty from rate jump
- Volatility pricing on economic data
10:12lesson
Volatility surface and market reactions
- Options got too cheap based on realized move
- Volatility jumped on Thursday
- Negative gamma and deleveraging
- VIX had third biggest move since 1990
- Volatility needs to be cleared
12:01lesson
Market dynamics and event-driven volatility
- Volatility not cheap anymore
- Events like Nvidia earnings and FOMC
- Uncertainty from rate jump
- Volatility pricing on economic data
- Tricky dynamic for market stability
13:50lesson
Volatility surface and market reactions
- Options got too cheap based on realized move
- Volatility jumped on Thursday
- Negative gamma and deleveraging
- VIX had third biggest move since 1990
- Volatility needs to be cleared
15:34lesson
Potential market stability and risk clearing events
- Market stability needs one of three things
- 7,700 with positive gamma
- 7,300 with negative gamma dissipation
- VIX spikes and traders step in
- Thanksgiving window for rally
17:17lesson
Analogy to past market events and analogies
- Analogy to Thanksgiving rally
- Nvidia earnings and VIX expiration
- Liquidity for anthropic and SpaceX
- Potential for market rally
- FOMC update after Thanksgiving
18:58lesson
Gamma positioning and market review
- Review of gamma positioning for future use
- Positive gamma at 7,700
- Negative gamma at 7,300
- Market selling at 7,300
- Positioning helps navigate future moves
20:43lesson
Gamma dynamics and market behavior
- Positive gamma at 7,700
- Negative gamma at 7,300
- Market selling at 7,300
- Positioning helps navigate future moves
- Gamma dissipates at 7,400
22:38lesson
Deleveraging and market stability
- Deleveraging in the market
- 1% draw down unlikely
- 2% selling more likely
- Volatility can spike back up
- Gamma maps help flag bottoms
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