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Bitcoin Is Down 54%. History Says Bear Markets End at 77%. Do the Math
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0:05lesson
Bitcoin — bearish, $60k is the line
- Bear markets end after 77% to 85% declines
- Only 54% down so far
- Institutional adoption may change cycles
- Options pricing 52% implied volatility
- Price forecasts range 42K to 250K
2:04IBIT· ticker
IBIT — short puts, long calls
- Short August 35 put in IBIT
- Assigned on 100 shares
- $200 excess value in call
- Sold put again immediately
- Personal account long call in IBIT
3:50IBIT· ticker
IBIT — put skew in August
- August 30 strike put four points out of money
- 38 strike call four points out of money
- Higher probability downside
- Puts queue vs calls queue
- First time seeing put skew in IBIT
5:30IBIT· ticker
IBIT — December call skew
- December 30 strike put four points out of money
- 38 strike call four points out of money
- More calls queue further out
- Better setup for premium collection
- 20 cent credit for short put
- Break even under 30
- 55k in Bitcoin
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