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Bond Market Update: Is Now the Time to Buy?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00ZBZ6· ticker
ZBZ6 — tactical swing trade, long bonds oversold
- 30-year Treasury bond futures contract
- ZBZ6 represents $100,000 face value
- One full point = $1,000 per contract
- Minimum tick = 132nd of a point = $31.25
1:42ZB· ticker
ZB — long bond sensitivity to yields
- ZB more sensitive to interest rate changes
- Yields fall → ZB moves quickly
- Yields rise → ZB downside violent
- Duration sensitivity key factor
3:17lesson
Call spread vs short put spread payoff profile
- Short put spread risks $750 for $250 gain
- Call spread risks $218 for potential $78125 payoff
- Call spread better for managing risk
- Avoid overexposure to falling market
3:18CFTC· ticker
CFTC — extreme short positioning in bonds
- Speculators hold extreme short levels
- Historical lows in bonds in October 23
- Market saturated on downside
- Catalyst needed for bounce
3:19lesson
Managing a call spread trade
- Defined risk of $218.75
- Goal is to capture swing higher
- Not to call the exact bottom
- Take profit if price bounces
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