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Nvidia at $200 Has a 24 Point Implied Move Priced Into Earnings.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Nvidia valuation vs. AI trade maturity
- Nvidia at $200/share
- 20–23x forward earnings
- AI still early innings vs. overcrowded semis
- 1,000% gain over 5 years
- Hyperscaler CapEx to drive growth
2:11Nvidia· ticker
Nvidia — 24-point implied move, call skew
- 45-day option cycle
- 24-point implied move
- Call skew at 190 and 230 strikes
- 240 strike: $400
- 180 strike: $270
3:56lesson
Call skew persistence across expirations
- 212 strike: $2,500 calls, $2,100 puts
- Dividend and interest rate premium
- SPX shows similar skew
- 260 strike: $1,000 (Dec)
- 160 strike: $500 (50 pts OTM)
5:44lesson
Market expectations: earnings surprise needed
- Monstrous earnings expected
- Unforeseen news needed for big upside
- 230 level: 20 points away
- Upward drift possible if calm
- Psychological level at $200
5:45SPX· ticker
SPX — interest rate premium in options
- Near 4% interest rate
- Calls > puts at ATM
- Premium baked into options
5:46crude oil· ticker
Crude oil — backwardation at 8 points
- Front-back month: 8-point backwardation
- Down from 15-point peak
- Markets show backwardation
5:47E-minis· ticker
E-minis — up 28 points
- E-minis up 28
- Nasdaq up 400 points
- Equity markets indifferent to crude
5:48Nasdaq· ticker
Nasdaq — up 400 points
- Nasdaq up almost 400
- Close to all-time highs
- E-minis also near ATH
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