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Nvidia at $200 Has a 24 Point Implied Move Priced Into Earnings.

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Breakdown

0:00lesson

Nvidia valuation vs. AI trade maturity

  • Nvidia at $200/share
  • 20–23x forward earnings
  • AI still early innings vs. overcrowded semis
  • 1,000% gain over 5 years
  • Hyperscaler CapEx to drive growth
2:11Nvidia· ticker

Nvidia — 24-point implied move, call skew

  • 45-day option cycle
  • 24-point implied move
  • Call skew at 190 and 230 strikes
  • 240 strike: $400
  • 180 strike: $270
3:56lesson

Call skew persistence across expirations

  • 212 strike: $2,500 calls, $2,100 puts
  • Dividend and interest rate premium
  • SPX shows similar skew
  • 260 strike: $1,000 (Dec)
  • 160 strike: $500 (50 pts OTM)
5:44lesson

Market expectations: earnings surprise needed

  • Monstrous earnings expected
  • Unforeseen news needed for big upside
  • 230 level: 20 points away
  • Upward drift possible if calm
  • Psychological level at $200
5:45SPX· ticker

SPX — interest rate premium in options

  • Near 4% interest rate
  • Calls > puts at ATM
  • Premium baked into options
5:46crude oil· ticker

Crude oil — backwardation at 8 points

  • Front-back month: 8-point backwardation
  • Down from 15-point peak
  • Markets show backwardation
5:47E-minis· ticker

E-minis — up 28 points

  • E-minis up 28
  • Nasdaq up 400 points
  • Equity markets indifferent to crude
5:48Nasdaq· ticker

Nasdaq — up 400 points

  • Nasdaq up almost 400
  • Close to all-time highs
  • E-minis also near ATH

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