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Fed Decision Day Meets AI's Biggest Earnings Test
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00Fed funds futures· ticker
Fed funds futures priced in <55% hike chance
- Fed funds futures priced in <55% hike chance
- Since 1997, Fed never moved when futures priced <55%
- Focus on 2-year yield movement
- 2-year yield up = more hikes expected
- 2-year yield down = not good for treasuries
1:382-year yield· ticker
2-year yield movement signals market expectations
- 2-year yield up = more hikes expected
- 2-year yield down = not good for treasuries
- Inflation and growth premiums embedded at long end
1:39Microsoft· ticker
Microsoft faces AI payback test
- Microsoft needs reserve growth, AI revenue, and spending discipline
- Market wants proof AI investment generates returns
- AI revenue must show returns for every dollar invested
1:40Meta· ticker
Meta faces AI payback test
- Market wants proof AI demand translates to revenue, margins, cash flow
- No proof of more work or long-term returns
- AI demand in short run already assumed
1:41Alphabet· ticker
Alphabet raised AI bar with strong earnings
- Strong earnings overshadowed by large capex build
- AI revenue and discipline spending needed for investors
1:42Oil· ticker
Oil price swings after June inflation report
- June inflation report cooled down
- Oil came off 100, swung back higher, then lower
- Oil price swings after inflation report
1:43Sinx· ticker
Sinx fell 9.6% despite 6x profit increase
- Sinx fell 9.6% despite 6x profit increase
- Expectations, policy risk, business model misunderstanding matter
1:44NYC· ticker
NYC advanced decline at new all-time high
- New York Stock Exchange advanced decline at new all-time high
- Equal weighted S&P 500 at all-time high
1:45Visa· ticker
Visa shows stronger results
- Visa shows stronger results
- Consumer confidence not strong, but spending continues
1:46Boeing· ticker
Boeing shows stronger results
- Boeing shows stronger results
- Consumer confidence not strong, but spending continues
1:47PayPal· ticker
PayPal shows stronger results
- PayPal shows stronger results
- Consumer confidence not strong, but spending continues
1:48lesson
Market favoring payments and staples
- Favor payments and staples over discretionary exposure
- Tech continues to unwind
- Consumer spending continues despite weak confidence
1:49Tasty Live· ticker
Tasty Live coverage for Fed and earnings
- Tasty Live coverage for Fed and earnings
- Biggest day of the week, biggest day of the year so far
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