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A Tough-Talking Fed Failed to Impress the Markets. What's Next?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:10lesson
Fed rate decision analysis
- Fed rate decision has come and gone
- No rate hike as widely expected
- Markets reacting to price action
- S&P 500 showing familiar cadence
- Earnings reports influencing market behavior
2:28S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 correction and earnings
- S&P 500 setting lower lows and lower highs
- Correction ahead of tech earnings
- Google and Microsoft earnings due after close
- Market response to Fed news was soggy
- NASDAQ trading in familiar range since October
4:57Gold· ticker
Gold and silver reacting to Fed
- Gold coming off underside of range
- Silver slumping toward recent range bottom
- Bitcoin showing constructive range
- Dollar showing turning point attempt
- Euro finding support at range bottom
7:41Bonds· ticker
Bond yields and Fed policy
- Front end of yield curve less constructive
- ZF and ZN showing higher yields
- Long bond yields meaningfully higher
- Interest rates and oil prices inverted
- Tech shares underperforming broader market
10:27Fed Funds Futures· ticker
Fed funds futures and rate hike timing
- December rate hike probability down to 83.5%
- January hike priced in
- April hike priced in
- September hike probability at 94.5%
- Markets pushing rate hikes further into future
13:02GDP· ticker
GDP data and economic growth
- Atlanta Fed GDP model revised to 3.3%
- Growth focused on data center buildout
- Consumption remains weak
- Consumer squeeze affecting middle-income
- Data center growth may not sustain economy
15:26ECB· ticker
ECB policy and Eurozone yields
- ECB holds rates at 2.65%
- French spread at 154 basis points
- Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal yields up
- Credit stress in Eurozone
- Lagarde's comments on Eurozone stress
17:57Positioning· ticker
Market positioning and trades
- Still short gold, long currencies against USD
- Short silver, long Bitcoin
- Short European stocks via FEZ
- Long bonds via TLT
- Long oil via USO, short biotech via XBI
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