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Cem Karsan Said Buy Calendars Last Monday. It Was the Best Trade of the Week.
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Chapters13 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00VIX· ticker
VIX weekend effect — calendar day calculation
- VIX measured in calendar days
- Weekend priced during trading days
- Friday VIX crash not reality
- Weekend effect creates calculation distortion
1:43lesson
V compression during OPEX cycles
- V compression occurs 1.5-2 weeks pre-expiration
- V sellers scale up during compression
- V buyers take break during compression
- Compression breaks at 25-40 V levels
3:32VIX· ticker
VIX compression mechanics
- Dealers short left tail puts
- Long calls near expiration
- Positioning drives V compression
- Fat tail risk during compression
5:06VIX· ticker
VIX compression trade execution
- Buy calendars >30 days
- Sell short-term options
- Strangles in high volume names
- VIX at 15 signals potential crash
6:51lesson
Correlation breakdown dynamics
- Index compression causes dispersion
- Single stock volatility diverges
- Beware single stock shorting risks
- VIX below 15 signals major moves
8:28VIX· ticker
Historical VIX pricing evolution
- Event-based volatility pricing now
- Discrete daily event pricing
- Retail traders need event-based analysis
- Historic curve pricing obsolete
10:00crude· ticker
Crude oil as inflation driver
- Strait of Hormuz remains closed
- US-China currency war over oil
- Long-term energy price trend higher
- Yen intervention tied to inflation
12:04yen· ticker
Yen intervention mechanics
- Japan sells US treasuries to weaken yen
- 10/30-year bond yields rise
- Central bank backs stop bond curve
- Intervention facility at 60 billion
13:50US treasuries· ticker
Bond yield curve management
- Yen intervention backs stop long end
- Central bank commits to control yields
- Negative real rates trigger inflation spiral
- 70s-style inflationary environment
15:43gold· ticker
Gold as dollar hedge
- Gold tied to dollar weakness
- Commodity inflation drivers
- Resistance at 4,500 level
- Gold/silver ratio below 100
17:37lesson
Macro intervention implications
- Supply shock vs demand shock
- Inflationary spiral risks
- Central bank response strategies
- Market preparation for acceleration
19:03oil· ticker
Oil as inflation catalyst
- Crude up 5% recent move
- Retail traders play both sides
- Waiting for next real move
- Gold/silver ratio watch
20:30lesson
Market preparation framework
- Prepare for inflationary environment
- Admin response strategies post-midterm
- Global conflict scale implications
- Hedge fund intervention capabilities
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