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Cem Karsan Said Buy Calendars Last Monday. It Was the Best Trade of the Week.

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Chapters13 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:00VIX· ticker

VIX weekend effect — calendar day calculation

  • VIX measured in calendar days
  • Weekend priced during trading days
  • Friday VIX crash not reality
  • Weekend effect creates calculation distortion
1:43lesson

V compression during OPEX cycles

  • V compression occurs 1.5-2 weeks pre-expiration
  • V sellers scale up during compression
  • V buyers take break during compression
  • Compression breaks at 25-40 V levels
3:32VIX· ticker

VIX compression mechanics

  • Dealers short left tail puts
  • Long calls near expiration
  • Positioning drives V compression
  • Fat tail risk during compression
5:06VIX· ticker

VIX compression trade execution

  • Buy calendars >30 days
  • Sell short-term options
  • Strangles in high volume names
  • VIX at 15 signals potential crash
6:51lesson

Correlation breakdown dynamics

  • Index compression causes dispersion
  • Single stock volatility diverges
  • Beware single stock shorting risks
  • VIX below 15 signals major moves
8:28VIX· ticker

Historical VIX pricing evolution

  • Event-based volatility pricing now
  • Discrete daily event pricing
  • Retail traders need event-based analysis
  • Historic curve pricing obsolete
10:00crude· ticker

Crude oil as inflation driver

  • Strait of Hormuz remains closed
  • US-China currency war over oil
  • Long-term energy price trend higher
  • Yen intervention tied to inflation
12:04yen· ticker

Yen intervention mechanics

  • Japan sells US treasuries to weaken yen
  • 10/30-year bond yields rise
  • Central bank backs stop bond curve
  • Intervention facility at 60 billion
13:50US treasuries· ticker

Bond yield curve management

  • Yen intervention backs stop long end
  • Central bank commits to control yields
  • Negative real rates trigger inflation spiral
  • 70s-style inflationary environment
15:43gold· ticker

Gold as dollar hedge

  • Gold tied to dollar weakness
  • Commodity inflation drivers
  • Resistance at 4,500 level
  • Gold/silver ratio below 100
17:37lesson

Macro intervention implications

  • Supply shock vs demand shock
  • Inflationary spiral risks
  • Central bank response strategies
  • Market preparation for acceleration
19:03oil· ticker

Oil as inflation catalyst

  • Crude up 5% recent move
  • Retail traders play both sides
  • Waiting for next real move
  • Gold/silver ratio watch
20:30lesson

Market preparation framework

  • Prepare for inflationary environment
  • Admin response strategies post-midterm
  • Global conflict scale implications
  • Hedge fund intervention capabilities

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