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Quarter-End Chaos, Jobs Week, and AI’s Next Test: What's Next?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Quarter end flows driving price action
- Q2 end flows may cause weird price action
- Portfolio managers mark books
- Lagards get dressed up
- Market strength continues from yesterday
- Advanced decline line at all-time highs
1:45lesson
Labor market shifting narrative from inflation
- Jobs data taking narrative control
- Jolt starts sequence today
- ADP, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls follow
- 2-year yield key to watch
- Hot labor market could push hike to July
- Weaker labor market may avoid hike
- Market priced at one point for July hike
1:46lesson
AI is funding story
- AI trade moved past scarcity narrative
- Demand for GPUs/memory real
- Governments support with industrial policy
- Samsung, SKH, Oracle, SoftBank, OpenAI, SpaceX, Apple part of story
- Apple price hikes raise concern
- Capex validates demand but creates future imbalance
- Market separates AI beneficiaries vs. cost absorbers
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