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Is the US Economy About to Crack? Watch This, Says Ilya Spivak
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Chapters8 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Macro market analysis setup
- Macro Money episode on economic worries
- Price action analysis as primary focus
- Eerie lead from last week's market
- Improvement today but not fully encouraging
- Retracement within a decline pattern
2:37lesson
Market digestion and consolidation
- Digestion and consolidation before news
- Bonds rising, yields falling
- Crude oil surging despite economic data
- Gold holding despite inflation data
- Eurozone bond yield spread at crisis levels
5:12lesson
Market disconnect and growth risk
- Oil and inflation data not driving gold lower
- Euro not selling off despite internal stress
- Dollar weak despite oil and data
- Hawkish Fed narrative reversing
- Yields pulling back on policy expectations
7:46lesson
Economic calendar and PMI data
- S&P global PMI numbers as key data
- Modestly lower manufacturing and services
- Consumer confidence at record lows
- Affordability crisis from wage vs price gap
- GDP model showing negative growth
10:25lesson
Inflation expectations and Fed policy
- Break even inflation expectations not rising with oil
- Growth scare similar to July episode
- 50 basis point delta between Fed and markets
- 82% chance of rate hold in October
- 95% chance of hike in December
13:03lesson
Earnings calendar and market positioning
- Earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, Netflix
- SpaceX earnings moved to after close
- Potential for rate hike postponement
- Gold and dollar positioning
- Shorting USD against CAD, EUR, GBP
15:32lesson
Regionalization and ETF exposure
- Del globalization and regionalization narrative
- Long gold, short USD, short EUR, GBP, AUD
- Added exposure to EW (Mexico ETF)
- Holding EWZ (Brazil ETF) since 2025
- Exploratory call vertical on EW
17:55lesson
Narrative on regionalization
- Narrative of del globalization and regionalization
- Regionalization as a key theme
- Continuation of the same narrative
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