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October 4th First Call
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Macro calendar and market dynamics
- Macro calendar interesting over next year
- Non-farm payrolls Friday, earnings season starting
- Fed rate hike expectations turning
- Yields marching higher at long end
- Data turning soggy, Atlanta Fed GDP model turning soggy
2:15lesson
Bessin's misspeak and market reaction
- Bessin misspoke about being the house
- Market reaction to misspeak within 24 hours
- Bessin's message not landing as intended
- Market showing reaction function
- Administration listening to market
4:26lesson
Market sentiment and policy implications
- Markets wanted reaction function
- Administration pausing tariffs
- Market showing it can be heard
- Fed message aligning with market
- Potential turning point for sentiment
6:32lesson
War and fiscal pressure implications
- War feeding long-end yield curve
- Fiscal pressure from war and high deficits
- Potential reprieve for bond market
- Need for Fed to align with market
- War not the only factor in inflation
8:30lesson
Bond market dynamics and real yields
- Real yields rising due to economic heat
- AI build-out and loanable funds demand
- Slowing economy to address inflation
- War reducing inflation stickiness
- Housing and tariffs as factors
10:44lesson
Emerging markets and dollar dynamics
- Emerging markets benefiting from softer dollar
- Lower yields as a boom for emerging markets
- Market attention to Brazil election
- Bolsonaro vs. Lula poll dynamics
- Brazil ETF surge due to poll expectations
13:20lesson
Options trading and liquidity
- Options liquidity varies by ticker
- STZ has 79.3 RVR and 50% volatility
- RPM has low liquidity, not worth trading
- Levi has better liquidity than STZ
- PepsiCo has good liquidity and expected move
15:15lesson
Earnings calendar and market focus
- Earnings calendar dominated by macro factors
- ISM services report, FOMC minutes, consumer confidence
- Market focus on service sector and Fed policy
- Consumer squeezed by inflation
- Tech leading the market despite economic headwinds
19:17lesson
Market and economic dichotomy
- Market leaning on tech despite economic headwinds
- Data center build-out as a growth area
- Consumer squeezed by inflation
- Push and pull in markets and economy
- Resolution of dichotomy is key
21:50lesson
Position management and trade adjustments
- Managing positions with SMH and Marvell
- Rolling out positions to avoid decay
- Adjusting short call spreads for expiration
- Considering next November expiries
- Risk management in options trading
23:37lesson
Seasonality and market sentiment
- September as a bad month, but recovery expected
- Bessin's bombers leaving England
- Potential pump heading into midterms
- Trump's comments on financial crisis
- Administration's stance on inflation and deficit
25:22lesson
Market sentiment and policy implications
- Biden's comments on inflation and deficit
- Powell's message on mortgage rates
- Money to data centers instead of homes
- Republican messaging on economic policy
- Market reaction to policy shifts
27:27lesson
Oil and market positioning
- Short bias on oil due to short call spread
- Iron condor with short put spread
- Break-even points and risk management
- Long-term oil position with 44 days
- Decay of premium over time
29:58lesson
Volatility and market signals
- VIX spread widening as a bull market signal
- Historical returns after VIX spread widening
- S&P 500 gains after median return
- Anti-dollar opportunities and emerging markets
- Market potential for bull run into midterms
32:15lesson
Market behavior and Fed policy
- Back-to-back Fed hikes and market returns
- Negative 12-month return with back-to-back hikes
- Positive returns without back-to-back hikes
- Market behavior during Fed hike cycles
- Potential for market recovery post-hike cycle
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