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Elon Musk Says SpaceX Hits $100 Trillion. Here’s What the Options Are Pricing.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00SPCE· ticker
SpaceX — $100T in 110 years, $2T now
- Musk says SpaceX will be $100T in 110 years
- Today at $2T, $98T gap
- Wall Street avg $216 target
- 28 of 38 analysts say buy
- AI models avg $111, none say buy
2:32GROK· ticker
Grok — strong sell on parent
- Grok gives SpaceX strong sell
- Target $115
- In-house AI won't cosign
4:17SPCE· ticker
SpaceX — 48x growth needed
- Must grow 48x to hit $100T
- 47% annual growth for 10 years
- Stock doubles every 22 months
6:00NVDA· ticker
Nvidia — 140x growth in 10 years
- Nvidia up 140x in 10 years
- 64% annual growth
- Now $4.5T market cap
6:01AMD· ticker
AMD — 92x growth in 10 years
- AMD up 92x in 10 years
- 57% annual growth
- Market cap under $40B start
6:02MU· ticker
Micron — 60x growth in 10 years
- Micron up 60x in 10 years
- 50% annual growth
- Market cap under $40B start
6:03SPCE· ticker
SpaceX — 22x current Nvidia
- Proposed $100T is 22x current Nvidia
- Nvidia at $4.5T
- SpaceX at $2T
6:04SPCE· ticker
SpaceX — 5.4T in 10 years at 10% return
- At 10% return, SpaceX gets to $5.4T
- Only 5% of Musk's $100T
- Mag 7 combined at $25T
6:05SPCE· ticker
Options — $86 expected move
- Options expect $86 move either way
- Only to $225
- No way to project 10 years out
6:06lesson
Options math for 10-year growth
- Options can't predict 10 years out
- Longest options to 2029
- Expected move only $86
6:07lesson
Volatility and stock growth
- Volatility decreases as stock grows
- Nvidia volatility dropped from 60s to 40s
- SpaceX volatility may drop to 50s/40s
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