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Ray Dalio Says the US Is Going Broke and Named the Exact Playbook
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
U.S. fiscal crisis and bond yield implications
- Ray Dalio warns U.S. is going broke
- Debt passes 40 trillion legal limit
- Fiscal 2026 adds 2.5 trillion daily
- Headroom left is 5 months of issuance
2:17TLT· ticker
TLT duration and yield impact analysis
- TLT has 16 years of duration
- Every 100 basis points move = 16% change
- Forced yield from 5.33% to 3% = 233 basis points
- 37% move from 79 to 109
4:22TLT· ticker
TLT volatility and options strategy
- TLT at 77 with high IV rank 90
- Implied volatility at 16% is low
- 30% gain from 77 to 109
- Implied move at 12.4% is $12
6:14TLT· ticker
TLT rally potential and rate outlook
- 25 basis point rate hike expected by year-end
- TLT rally if rates cut
- 90 strike call has 13 points out of the money
- 30% probability of touching 90
6:15EM· ticker
EM and NASDAQ rally due to soft data
- EM up 50, NASDAQ up 300
- Volatility crushed by soft unemployment data
- Market movement expected in TLT
- Implied volatility may exceed current levels
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