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Tom Lee Says the Market Is a Coiled Spring, the Options Say Maybe
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0:00lesson
Tom Lee's market outlook
- Market is a coiled spring
- Post Thursday, market looks like slinky on stairs
- Tom Lee is Fundstrat founder
- Lee is Wall Street's unrelenting bull
- Lee targets 8200-8400 for S&P by year end
2:29SPX· ticker
SPX target 8200-8400
- S&P 500 near 6580 in March
- Lee held 7700 target
- Lee now targets 8200-8400
- Q3 earnings restore AI confidence
- Hedge funds unwound AI bets
4:25VIX· ticker
VIX at 19
- VIX closed at 19
- 1.2% drop was standard deviation
- Options shrugged 7% move
- Election 11 days from recording
- VIX 19 implies 90 points range
4:26Meta· ticker
Meta earnings impact
- Meta beat revenue by 64.6 billion
- Fell 7%
- NASDAQ dropped 2.6%
- Chips fell 6.7%
- 26% of chips below June record
4:27Tesla· ticker
Tesla earnings impact
- Tesla earnings this week
- Market didn't take earnings kindly
- Earnings not driving positive move
- Options math check focuses on expected moves
4:28lesson
Options math and market range
- Options market puts 1 in 5 chance of SPX above 8200 by year end
- SPX at 7663
- VIX at 19 implies 7673-7753 range
- Lee's 8200 is 6% higher than 7753
- Market in a bare market
4:29SPX· ticker
SPX options activity
- Options activity shows 400 points range
- Upside to 8000
- Downside to 7200
- Christmas rally expected late December
- Market range includes 7200-8000
4:30lesson
Market direction and upcoming catalysts
- Forecast not the main focus
- Focus on Fed meeting and earnings
- Earnings not driving positive move
- Options math check focuses on expected moves
- Market direction is key
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