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Is the Dollar About to Break Down? Watch This, Says Ilya Spivak
NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 17:53
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Markets indecisive amid earnings and economic data
- Markets not signaling clear direction
- Static S&P 500 and Nasdaq
- Earnings releases as sentiment inflection points
- Tech-heavy indices facing pressure
2:32lesson
Nasdaq consolidation and growth risk
- Nasdaq consolidating around 30,000
- Wedge structure favoring downside
- Crude oil rising despite falling rates
- Euro refusing to decline despite bond spread
5:02lesson
Bond and currency dynamics
- Bonds rallying, rates falling
- Euro not declining despite bond stress
- Dollar weakening against major currencies
- Gold not selling off despite inflation
7:54lesson
GDPNow model and economic growth concerns
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model at 3.5%
- Negative GDP data trends since mid-August
- Consumption as key growth driver
- Non-residential investment limited
10:29lesson
Market positioning and Fed expectations
- Fed rate hike expectations in December
- Markets anticipating 50 basis points next year
- Rate hikes being canceled due to growth risk
- Stocks not reacting to rate hike cancellation
13:00S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 and tech indices
- S&P 500 excluding tech showing relief
- Tech indices still in sell-off
- AI-driven growth concerns
- Consumer spending as key factor
15:13Gold· ticker
Gold and currency positions
- Gold not selling off despite inflation
- Shorting USD against major currencies
- Longing EUR, CAD, GBP, AUD
- Longing EWW and FEZ
17:36Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin and market positioning
- Bitcoin trying to rally
- Call verticals on Bitcoin
- Bearish exposure on Russell, Nasdaq, S&P
- Long oil and bonds via TLT
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