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US Inflation Data Sparked a Market Rally. Bond Yields Didn't Buy It

decoded from tastyliveoptionsMarket UpdateWatch on YouTube
NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 20:11
Chapters23 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:10lesson

Macro Money: US economy concerns

  • Economic data prompts questions about US economy
  • Focus on charts and market trends
  • Long-term bond yields rising
  • Underlying bonds selloff
  • Hot economy with inflation and Fed hikes
2:46NASDAQ· ticker

NASDAQ — tech narrative strong

  • NASDAQ up 0.6%
  • Tech narrative burns brightest
  • Holding near major highs
  • Hovering around early June levels
5:48S&P 500· ticker

S&P 500 — diluted tech influence

  • S&P 500 up 0.1%
  • Tech influence strong but diluted
  • Intraday rise erased
  • Flat near close
8:30Russell· ticker

Russell — rate-sensitive decline

  • Russell lower
  • Tech not uplifting factor
  • Sensitivity to interest rates
  • Leaking lower
  • Intraday bounce erased
11:142-year bond· ticker

2-year bond — yield attempt

  • Attempt to run up 2-year bond
  • Yields lower
  • Intraday candle higher
  • Reverted to familiar levels
14:03S&P 500· ticker

S&P 500 — equal weighted ETF

  • Equal weighted S&P 500 ETF down 6/10%
  • Gapped higher at open
  • Bar looks dramatic but not much progress
16:41Gold· ticker

Gold — rebound attempt

  • Gold meaningfully higher
  • Attempted to extend yesterday's rebound
  • Recoiled back
  • Slightly lower on the day
19:08EUR· ticker

EUR — support held

  • Euro held support intraday
  • Euro higher as Russell was higher
  • Reverted to familiar levels
19:09PCE· ticker

PCE — softer than expected

  • PCE inflation report softer than expected
  • Headline 3.4% vs 3.7% expected
  • Monthly rise revised down to 0.1%
  • Market reacted with bounce in Russell and S&P
19:10Fed· ticker

Fed — rate hike expectations

  • Fed's target for PCE at 2%
  • 3-month rate receding since May
  • 6-month rate going down since June
  • Trending against overly hawkish Fed
19:11Atlanta Fed GDP· ticker

Atlanta Fed GDP — revised down

  • Atlanta Fed GDP forecast revised to 3.7%
  • Starting forecasts between 5-6%
  • Slipped below 4%
  • Consumer contribution negative
19:12Consumption· ticker

Consumption — negative contribution

  • Consumption negative in GDP revisions
  • Consumers 68% of economy
  • AI building boom only 14%
  • Consumer pullback could offset growth
19:13Fed rate hike· ticker

Fed rate hike — expectations shifting

  • No hike in October now 63% chance
  • December likely to have hike
  • January possibility of follow-on hike
  • March fully discounted
19:14ISM manufacturing PMI· ticker

ISM manufacturing PMI — upcoming data

  • ISM manufacturing PMI data coming tomorrow
  • Strong numbers last week
  • AI building boom continues
  • Consumer retrenchment could subsume growth
19:15Non-farm payrolls· ticker

Non-farm payrolls — expected lower

  • Non-farm payrolls expected to add 84,000
  • Step lower from 162,000
  • Jobless rate up to 4.3%
  • Consumer confidence weak
19:16Market expectations· ticker

Market expectations — path of least resistance

  • Market still far from Fed on rate hikes
  • Market at two hikes leaning toward third
  • Fed at none for next year
  • Long end of curve still screaming for higher rates
19:17Gold· ticker

Gold — long position

  • Still long gold
  • Gold holding at lofty levels
  • Trade still working
  • Plenty of time on trade
19:18Dollar· ticker

Dollar — short position

  • Still short dollar against Aussie, pound, euro
  • Dollar strong
  • Long dollar against CAD
  • Diluting positioning
19:19Bitcoin· ticker

Bitcoin — long position

  • Still long Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin holding at lofty levels
  • Refuses to respond to rising yields
  • Trade still working
19:20Russell· ticker

Russell — short position

  • Still short Russell
  • Russell keeps falling
  • 30-day put vertical left
  • Position working
19:21Silver· ticker

Silver — short position

  • Silver will cut in half today
  • Zero day part of spread expires worthless
  • 18 or 16 days left
  • Time to see NFP and ISM data
19:22SPY· ticker

SPY — long put vertical

  • Still long put vertical in SPY
  • Looking for weakness
  • Long end of curve still aggressive
  • Still a baby loss
19:23Crude oil· ticker

Crude oil — long call vertical

  • Still long crude oil via call vertical
  • Macro money for today
  • Market still far from Fed on rate hikes

Informational only — this is tastylive’s content, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. The outline, timestamps, and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.