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We Checked the Math on Tom Lee's S&P 8000 Call
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 — 10-20% drop, rally to 8,000
- 10-20% drop in S&P between August-Oct
- Rally to 8,000 by year-end
- 8,400-8,800 as upside case
- Tech correction showed early
2:05Nasdaq· ticker
Nasdaq — 6% drop since July 6
- Down >6% since July 6
- Options imply 23% chance above 8,000
- 2% chance above 8,800
3:57lesson
Sector Rotation — RSP vs SPY
- QQQ heavily weighted to tech
- RSP (equal-weighted) trudging higher
- Divergence between SPY and RSP
- Capital flows into consumer products
5:54CUES· ticker
CUES — 17% year-to-date, recent rally
- 17% gain in 2026
- Recent rally to 7,400
- Divergence in 2-hour chart
7:52SPX· ticker
SPX — 8,000 within range, 8,800 unlikely
- 8,000 within 23% probability
- 8,800 requires 10%+ rally
- VIX in low teens needed
- Contango in VIX futures
7:53S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 — put skew, strike prices
- 8,000 strike at $9,300
- 6,800 strike at $12K
- Put skew indicates downside bias
- 600-pt bid-ask spreads
7:54NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ — Meta down 55, divergence from index
- Meta down 55 points
- Diverging from NASDAQ rally
- MAG7 stocks lagging
- Need recovery to match RSP
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