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How Traders Milked the Volatility Out of SpaceX

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Breakdown

0:00lesson

Equity market dynamics and Brazilian stocks

  • Equity market stuck with 10 years 5.3
  • EWZ up 12-13% with call implies going bananas
  • VSS going crazy
  • Broken wing call flies to monetize upside skew
1:43lesson

SpaceX and Tesla market opportunities

  • SpaceX at 165 up 3.5%
  • Upgrades and rocket launches
  • Tesla breaking back out
  • Short put to finance long call at 125
  • IV increase benefits positioning
3:26lesson

Macro rate impact on equity and options

  • Call volume charts contracted
  • Realized ball to upside higher than downside
  • Right tail risk in Brazil
  • Macro data cooling needed for market
  • Call options behavior reduced
4:59lesson

Gamma positioning in SpaceX

  • Traders selling calls and puts on vault
  • Positive gamma positioning since IPO
  • VA contracted after lockup
  • Potential for upside gamma build-up
  • Gamma call wall resistance around 170
6:30lesson

Stock behavior and gamma stability

  • Stock rallies then consolidates
  • Mean reversion expected
  • Upgrade bringing new capital
  • Gamma call wall resistance around 170
  • Positive gamma provides stability
8:05lesson

Implied volatility and market barometer

  • IV rank of 10 for SpaceX
  • Implied volatility at 50%
  • Fair value around 170-200
  • Market barometer for price action
  • IV expansion possible with big move
9:42lesson

Nvidia as a market opportunity

  • Nvidia as top NASDAQ/S&P stock
  • IV rank near zero
  • Options complex with high volume
  • Technical and high-frequency trading
  • IV expansion possible with big move
11:20lesson

Market sentiment and options complex

  • Nvidia options complex with high volume
  • Artificially low IV due to trading
  • Nvidia tied to index movements
  • VIX pricing in election risk
  • VIX elevated due to election premium
12:59lesson

Earnings and market dynamics

  • Earnings pickup on 13th with banks
  • Nvidia reports later than others
  • Earnings premium for single stocks
  • Tech earnings blowing out
  • Rates coming down and election risk
14:32lesson

VIX and election risk

  • VIX pricing in election risk
  • VIX elevated due to premium
  • Spread between VIX and realized VA
  • Election premium likely to hold
  • Market sentiment gauged through single stocks

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