Paid Daily · Resources · Ask Plutus
Julia Spina on the 85% Win Rate That Barely Makes Money
NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 12:43
Chapters8 segments · tap to seek
ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Zero DTE put spreads — simple yet foundational
- Trading zero DTE put spreads is simple
- No management, no stop loss, no profit target
- Focus on directional intraday performance
- S&P 500 cash settled
- Defined risk, expiring position
1:30lesson
Performance metrics of zero DTE put spreads
- Win rate around 85% of sessions
- Average credit of $238
- Average P&L of $16
- Max loss several multiples of average credit
- Full credit kept in 84% of sessions
3:20lesson
Impact of VIX on zero DTE put spreads
- Higher VIX correlates with higher credit
- VIX over 20 leads to stronger performance
- Max loss remains constant across VIX environments
- Lower VIX also performs well
- VIX doesn't change potential upside
5:08lesson
Cumulative P&L and trade sizing importance
- Cumulative P&L consistently positive since 2023
- Small trade size crucial to withstand volatility
- Sizing becomes key without management
- Choppy market conditions
- Consistent growth with no management
6:48lesson
Nature of losses and spread width impact
- Losses grow after S&P moves beyond short strike
- 1.5% drop leads to near max loss
- Narrow spreads more likely to result in max loss
- Wider spreads have variable losses
- Max loss size smaller with wider spreads
8:36lesson
Recovery chances and trade setup importance
- About half of sessions recover after crossing short strike
- Median time below short strike: nearly three hours
- Trade setup crucial for peace of mind
- Recovery is a coin flip once breach occurs
- Setup determines risk management
10:16lesson
Comparing spread widths and loss distribution
- 31% of sessions cross below short strike
- Half of those recover, half reach max loss
- Wider spreads have more variable losses
- Smaller spreads more likely to hit max loss
- Comparing $5 and $20 wide spreads
11:57lesson
Key takeaways and challenges of zero DTE put spreads
- High win rate and long-term profitability
- One full loss erases multiple credit wins
- Large S&P drops bring positions near max loss
- Managing exposure to large swings is key
- Appropriate sizing and capital at risk
Informational only — this is tastylive’s content, decoded by Plutus. Not Paid Daily’s advice or a recommendation. The outline, timestamps, and claims are extracted from what the creator said; verify before acting.