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Oil is Up Again But Inflation Bets Won't Follow. That's a Red Flag.
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:09lesson
Macro Money: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics
- Interest rates central to market dynamics
- Economic data and bank earnings ahead
- War trade dynamic of inflation concerns
- Gold and bond markets reflect inflation concerns
2:31Gold· ticker
Gold Weakens Amid Crude Oil Response
- Gold inches back off consolidation range
- Crude oil response influences yields
- Silver attempts breakdown but aborts
- Congestive zone in gold and silver
5:17Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin Attempts to Carve Out Level
- Bitcoin attempts to carve out level
- Bonds attempt to mount turn
- AI revenue pacing at 50B and 70B
- Competition for loanable funds
8:14lesson
Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations
- Consumer confidence at second worst in history
- Current conditions index at all-time low
- One-year inflation expectations jump to 4.7%
- Sentiment deteriorates with inflation expectations
11:24lesson
Atlanta Fed GDP Model and Economic Data
- Atlanta Fed GDP model slides to 3.6%
- Inflation expectations and crude oil correlation
- July crude oil rebound not mirrored in inflation expectations
- Stocks reflect growth fears beyond tech
14:11lesson
Crude Oil and Inflation Expectations
- Crude oil rebounds, inflation expectations lag
- Growth scare window emerging
- September inflation data expected to rise
- Retail sales test consumer vigor
16:47lesson
Fed Policy Expectations and Market Outlook
- Fed policy expectations shift from hawkish to neutral
- October rate hike unlikely, December likely
- Markets expect 3 more hikes in 2027
- Fed and markets 50 basis points apart
19:17Bonds· ticker
Bonds Attempt Turn Amid Inflation Data
- PCE inflation at Fed target of 2%
- Core inflation trajectory pointing lower
- Markets unwind rate hike expectations
- Long gold, short dollar, long Aussie, EUR, and Euro
21:48Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin Still Long Despite Market Volatility
- Bitcoin holds call verticals
- Short silver, long Bitcoin
- Silver may bottom as gold turns higher
- Short broader stock market with put vertical in SPY
24:02lesson
Macro Money Wrap-Up and Market Outlook
- Macro Money returns tomorrow
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- Happy trading
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