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Gold Ignored the Best US Jobs Data in Months. Is This Why?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:11lesson
Market behavior vs economic data
- Market stuck in familiar range despite strong economic data
- ISM service sector numbers suggest strong US economy
- Consumers focus on services driving GDP
- Market not convinced by data
- Sentiment looking for clear lead since mid-August
2:55ZB· ticker
ZB futures test critical range
- ZB futures test critical range with downside gap
- Intervention from Scott Bessent and Japanese authorities
- Signal US Treasury not okay with large-scale selling of US securities
- Bonds move inversely to yields
- Yields hit highs as bonds hit lows
5:49US Treasury· ticker
Treasury intervention and bond buyback
- Scott Bessent increases bond buyback from 2B to 4B
- Signal yields shouldn't go higher than certain level
- Treasury responds to test of that level
- Yen spikes around third test
- Potential second round of intervention
8:14Gold· ticker
Gold not reacting to economic data
- Gold doesn't sell off despite hot economic data
- Gold gave tell in July when real yields rose
- Gold not selling off as real yields rise again
- Gold behavior counterintuitive to traditional logic
- Gold not reacting to Fed hawkishness
10:37USD· ticker
Dollar not rallying despite economic data
- Dollar not rallying against euro despite hot data
- Euro pushing higher like gold
- Dollar behavior counterintuitive to traditional logic
- Market not convinced by data
- Rate hike probabilities remain high
13:02Crude Oil· ticker
Crude oil rising but not affecting gold or dollar
- Crude oil rising to 1-month high around $93
- Inflation expectations rising with crude oil
- Break-even inflation rates recoupled with oil
- Gold and dollar not reacting to oil rise
- Market not convinced by data
15:25iShares TIPS ETF· ticker
Real rates and inflation expectations
- Real rates tracking bonds, not rates
- Pink line shows rates going higher
- Euro and dollar not complying with rate rise
- Gold not complying with rate rise
- Long-term inflation suppression concern
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