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Gold Ignored the Best US Jobs Data in Months. Is This Why?

NowPress play to follow along0:00 / 17:31
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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:11lesson

Market behavior vs economic data

  • Market stuck in familiar range despite strong economic data
  • ISM service sector numbers suggest strong US economy
  • Consumers focus on services driving GDP
  • Market not convinced by data
  • Sentiment looking for clear lead since mid-August
2:55ZB· ticker

ZB futures test critical range

  • ZB futures test critical range with downside gap
  • Intervention from Scott Bessent and Japanese authorities
  • Signal US Treasury not okay with large-scale selling of US securities
  • Bonds move inversely to yields
  • Yields hit highs as bonds hit lows
5:49US Treasury· ticker

Treasury intervention and bond buyback

  • Scott Bessent increases bond buyback from 2B to 4B
  • Signal yields shouldn't go higher than certain level
  • Treasury responds to test of that level
  • Yen spikes around third test
  • Potential second round of intervention
8:14Gold· ticker

Gold not reacting to economic data

  • Gold doesn't sell off despite hot economic data
  • Gold gave tell in July when real yields rose
  • Gold not selling off as real yields rise again
  • Gold behavior counterintuitive to traditional logic
  • Gold not reacting to Fed hawkishness
10:37USD· ticker

Dollar not rallying despite economic data

  • Dollar not rallying against euro despite hot data
  • Euro pushing higher like gold
  • Dollar behavior counterintuitive to traditional logic
  • Market not convinced by data
  • Rate hike probabilities remain high
13:02Crude Oil· ticker

Crude oil rising but not affecting gold or dollar

  • Crude oil rising to 1-month high around $93
  • Inflation expectations rising with crude oil
  • Break-even inflation rates recoupled with oil
  • Gold and dollar not reacting to oil rise
  • Market not convinced by data
15:25iShares TIPS ETF· ticker

Real rates and inflation expectations

  • Real rates tracking bonds, not rates
  • Pink line shows rates going higher
  • Euro and dollar not complying with rate rise
  • Gold not complying with rate rise
  • Long-term inflation suppression concern

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