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The Day the Market Hits a Record Is the Worst Day to Do This Trade
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Zero DTE iron condor setup
- Test zero DTE with 20 delta
- 20 delta and $20 wide iron condor
- Basic setup tested over years
- Trade any strategies
2:03lesson
Performance analysis of all-time highs
- Average performance for different days after breakout
- Expected move vs realized move
- Premium overvalued compared to realized range
- Day zero and day one show higher overpricing
4:14lesson
Day zero performance and P&L
- Day zero is worst performing
- Negative P&L on day zero
- Positive P&L on other durations
- Avoid trading on days with high losses
6:02lesson
Volatility and investor behavior
- Expected volatility higher than realized
- Implied volatility drops at all-time highs
- Investor optimism affects intraday momentum
- Momentum persists past all-time highs
7:50lesson
Trading strategies at all-time highs
- Avoid fading trends at all-time highs
- Switch to verticals or call spreads
- Tail risk remains with verticals
- Less premium collected without call side
9:30lesson
P&L analysis and risk management
- Day zero and day one have high loss bars
- Average profit cancels out
- Avoid trading in one to three days
- Risk $1,500 daily at all-time highs
11:26lesson
Long-term performance and regime shifts
- Performance returns to normal after one week
- Full month to revert to long-term average
- Test when next all-time high occurs
- Adjust strategies for regime shifts
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