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Markets Had a Chance to Bounce and They Blew It. Is It Too Late?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:10lesson
Markets struggle to find recovery amid event risk
- Markets had opportunity for correction higher at start of week
- Struggling to take correction
- Midterm election and event risk loom
- Focus on price action first
2:46S&P 500· ticker
S&P 500 failed to rebound after selloff
- S&P 500 tried rebound after last Friday's selloff
- Failed to hold yesterday's session
- Almost back to flat today
- 4-hour chart shows resistance at bottom right
5:13NASDAQ· ticker
NASDAQ paused after support levels
- NASDAQ paused after plowing through support levels
- Soggy attempt at recovery
- Dramatic turn of events
- Potential for bounce or flush into close
7:39Gold· ticker
Gold rejected at key levels
- Gold tried to sell off again
- Rejected at underside of last week's breakdown
- Markets waiting for event risk to clear
- Position short gold remains
10:07Silver· ticker
Silver digesting familiar levels
- Silver digesting around familiar levels
- More room for bounce than gold
- Trend still lower
- Potential bounce to 52-53
12:48Crude Oil· ticker
Crude oil flat after news
- Big flush at start of week after US diplomacy news
- Confirmation of memorandum of understanding
- News is old, market flat
- Potential for Congress to challenge president on war
15:03Bonds· ticker
Bonds digesting recent push higher
- Big push higher yesterday
- Digesting and not going far
- Market waiting for event risk to pass
- Earnings season and sentiment shift
17:21US Dollar· ticker
US dollar mixed amid event risk
- US dollar mostly lower
- Euro holding yesterday's push
- Canadian dollar in up move
- British pound stuck at familiar levels
17:22Australian Dollar· ticker
Australian dollar knocked back by RBA
- Australian dollar knocked back overnight
- RBA raised interest rates
- ISM manufacturing PMI at second highest in four years
- Softening demand in manufacturing
17:23ISM Manufacturing PMI· ticker
ISM manufacturing PMI shows strength
- Second highest in four years
- AI driving manufacturing strength
- Slower backlog growth
- Weaker demand in pipeline
17:24US Jobs Market· ticker
US jobs market shows strength
- Job openings at 7.5 million
- Layoffs lowest since 2025
- Quits rate highest in over a year
- Backward-looking figures to September
17:25ISM Services PMI· ticker
ISM services PMI shows steady growth
- Expectation for steady results at 54.8
- Service sector growth steady
- Markets dialing back Fed rate hike expectations
- Cyclical concerns gathering
17:26Fed· ticker
Fed rate hike expectations shifting
- Markets expect rate hike in December
- Rate hike priced in by January
- Fewer hikes expected in 2027
- One hike relatively low on totem pole
17:27GDP· ticker
GDP growth driven by business investment
- Business investment largest contributor to growth
- Imports shaved off 2.64 percentage points
- Consumption added 2.52 percentage points
- Economy standing on single leg
17:28AMD· ticker
AMD earnings in line with expectations
- Earnings in line with expectations
- 30% blended earnings growth
- Markets not impressed with substance
- Already discounted
17:29Qualcomm· ticker
Qualcomm earnings in line with expectations
- Earnings in line with expectations
- Markets not impressed with substance
- Already discounted
- Earning season broadly in line
17:30Bitcoin· ticker
Bitcoin as a lottery ticket
- Long side of Bitcoin
- Trade at max loss with 17 days to go
- Bounce or expire worthless
- Lottery ticket
17:31TLT· ticker
TLT call verticals long
- Long bonds through TLT call verticals
- Added to yesterday with more time
- Market dynamics shifting
- Bonds as a safe haven
17:32lesson
Summary of exposure and market outlook
- Short gold, short dollar, long Aussie, pound, euro, CAD
- Short silver still on
- Short side in stocks continues
- Put verticals in NASDAQ and S&P
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