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Hot Inflation Sank Stocks. Why Didn’t Bonds Panic Too?

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ticker lesson

Breakdown

0:11lesson

CPI data rattles markets, traders scramble

  • CPI data rattles financial markets
  • Traders scrambling for clarity
  • S&P 500 shows aggressive move lower
  • NASDAQ testing former resistance turn support
2:46lesson

Long end of yield curve reacts to CPI

  • Long end of yield curve unclenching
  • Competition for long-term financing
  • Open AI revenue discrepancy
  • Bonds rally on disappointment
5:17lesson

Short end of yield curve selloff

  • Short end cannot hold selloff
  • 2-year note drops to cycle lows
  • Hike odds ascend but fade
  • Market response to yield seessaw
8:11lesson

CPI data breakdown and market expectations

  • CPI report: 3.7% headline, 2.6% core
  • Headline and core services inflation up
  • Food category declined
  • Inflation broad-based with energy and services
10:53lesson

Market reaction to CPI data and policy expectations

  • Markets react counterintuitively to CPI
  • Policy expectations shift slightly hawkish
  • Fed still pricing 50 basis points in 2027
  • Markets not fully pricing in rate hikes
13:37lesson

Markets signal cyclical downturn

  • Markets suggest Fed will be less reactive
  • Inflation not enough to justify rate hikes
  • Economic data points to sub-4% GDP
  • Cyclical downturn implications
16:06lesson

Positioning and market outlook

  • Holding long gold while it holds low
  • Short dollar against Aussie and euro
  • Short European stock index via FEZ
  • Long Bitcoin via call verticals

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