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Does the Market's Opening Move Actually Hold All Day?
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ticker lesson
Breakdown
0:00lesson
Opening move persistence vs reversal
- Opening move holds throughout the day
- Reversal trend trades popular
- Market most volatile near open
- Large move defined as 050% absolute move
- Compare market after 30 min, 1 hour, 1.5 hours
1:30lesson
Intraday volatility pattern
- U-shaped volatility pattern
- Most volatility in first 90 minutes
- Volatility spikes near close
- Lunchtime flat with less volume
- Early traders wake up at 4:00 a.m
2:54lesson
Directional persistence after 30 minutes
- Large up moves hold better than down moves
- 77% up moves close up vs 66% down moves close down
- Market tends to continue in same direction
- Reversals still common
- Flat sessions defined as 25% absolute move
4:23lesson
Directional reliability after 1 hour
- Down moves more reliable than up moves
- 72% down moves close down vs 77% up moves close up
- Reversals become less common
- Positive drift remains
- Flat sessions still flat
5:54lesson
Conviction after 90 minutes
- Large moves harder to reverse after 90 minutes
- 76% down moves close down vs 79% up moves close up
- Reversal risk still present
- Positive drift remains
- Trends more likely to hold over time
7:26lesson
Reversal timing and macro events
- Reversals for down moves happen later than up moves
- 30-min down moves reverse 10 min later
- 1.5-hour down moves reverse 25 min later
- Macro events can trigger reversals
- Do not treat first 30 minutes as confirmation
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